28.02.201809:56 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Weak inflation can further press on the euro

The US dollar continues to experience good support from large investors, resuming its growth against risky assets after yesterday's speech by the new Fed chief.

Recently, the incoming data for the euro area does not have a big impact on the exchange rate of the European currency, although they are very good. The main problem is the inflation that the European Central Bank, despite all its efforts and measures to maintain a soft policy of credit policy, has not been able to disperse.

Today, we need to pay attention to the report on the consumer price index in the euro area, which will be published in the morning. If the data coincides with the forecasts, and even worse than them, the pressure on the euro may increase, which will lead to new active purchases of the US dollar.

Yesterday, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said that the strong economic outlook is in favor of further gradual increases in rates this year, although no specific number of increases were announced. Powell also believes that further gradual increases in rates will be the best way to achieve the goals of the Fed, as this will support the strength of the labor market and lead to a faster return of inflation to 2%.

According to the chairman of the FRS, the policy will depend on the prospects and incoming data, but most likely, the emphasis will be on inflation and growth prospects, since the state of the friend's market and GDP growth rates are good enough not to delay with further increase.

Powell also noted the fact that the financial conditions have become a bit stiffer in comparison with 2017, but they will not put much pressure on the economic outlook. Despite recent volatility, financial conditions remain mild, which in the future should provide good support to markets.

Thus, from all that has been said, we can conclude that the new chairman of the Fed, if not more, is certainly no less a supporter of tight monetary policy than his former colleague Janet Yellen. Although many experts also assumed that Powell will maintain the Fed's previous course, but still some fears that the committee might slow down with the rate hike, especially after the stock market crash, was present.

As for the technical picture of the currency pair EUR / USD, the breakthrough in support of 1.2200 could significantly collapse the trading instrument, since below this range is the mass of monthly stops of orders of buyers of risky assets. The breakthrough of 1.2200 will lead to a pair of support such as 1.2130 and 1.2080, which will also allow us to hook 1.2050.