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The Australian dollar managed to strengthen its positions against the US dollar after the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the key interest rate unchanged. However, there are a number of points that indicate a tightening of conditions in the short-term financing markets in US dollars.
According to yesterday's decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%, while stating that the rates correspond to the target level of inflation and economic growth. Despite this, a number of commercial banks have resorted to raising the cost of short-term financing, which also led to an increase in mortgage rates.
The RBA also expects further progress in reducing unemployment, as leading indicators show a strong increase in employment. Despite this, the regulator expects that the growth of salaries, most likely, will remain low for some time.
As for economic forecasts, experts in the RBA continue to project faster growth of GDP this year, which in the future will lead to a gradual return of inflation to the target level.
As for the technical picture of the AUD/USD pair, there are still no major changes. The small short-term growth of the Australian dollar is likely to be temporary, as the US-China trade war, which is only gaining momentum, could negatively affect the Australian economy.
Considering short positions in the AUD/USD pair would be best done after a correction to the areas of resistance at 0.7750 and 0.7780, and the breakthrough of current support levels in the area of 0.7640 will lead to another wave of selling in the trading instrument with the output towards new lows of 0.7560 and 0.7500.
On Sunday, it became known that the US and China could not negotiate on trade tariffs, although last week there were clear "glimpses" in the negotiations. The Chinese authorities imposed duties on the import of a number of goods from the United States, claiming retaliatory measures, after the administration of Donald Trump had imposed levies on the supply of steel and aluminum from China. As noted in the report of the Ministry of Finance of China, duties are raised by 25% of the tariff for American pork and a number of other commodity items, as well as 15% of the tariff for fruits and 120 commodities from the US.
As a result of such protectionist measures, investors once again turned their attention to gold, which yesterday rose strongly in price. Many traders are afraid of a more protracted trade war between the US and China, as well as the fact that a number of retaliatory measures with all the ensuing consequences of the European Union. This will necessarily lead to an increase in the costs of manufacturing companies and adversely affect the growth rate of the economy.
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