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Yesterday, the dollar managed to slightly improve its position relative to the single European currency. For the sake of fairness, it is worth noting that almost all day, the euro was not bad, despite the decline in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from 58.6 to 56.6. True, the data completely coincided with the preliminary estimate, so the market has already taken this into consideration for a long time. But the US statistics unexpectedly gave a pleasant surprise in the form of growth in sales of vehicles from 17.1 million to 17.5 million. The positive reaction of the market was strengthened by the fact that they predicted a decline in sales to 16.9 million.
Today, a single European currency has every chance not only to recoup but also to become seriously consolidated. The unemployment rate should decrease from 8.6% to 8.5%, and preliminary inflation data may show its growth from 1.1% to 1.4%. The most important thing is inflation. If it resumes growth, then the ECB will have no reason to extend the quantitative easing program. In the US, the ADP data on employment, which should show its growth of 205 thousand to 235 thousand in the previous month. Despite the slowdown in employment growth, they are still quite high, so this news can be regarded as positive. Also, production orders can increase by 1.7%. At the same time, the index of business activity in the service sector should decrease from 55.9 to 54.3, and the composite index from 55.8 to 54.1, which will neutralize the positive data. But the greatest effect will have just the data on inflation in Europe.
The euro / dollar pair will rise to 1.2325.
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