18.10.201813:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Plan for 10/18/2018

As expected, the dollar strengthened yesterday. True, somewhat stronger than expected, but this was facilitated by extremely weak data on inflation in the UK, as price growth slowed from 2.7% to 2.4%, while it expected growth to 2.8%. Such pitiable results perfectly complement the content of the minutes of the Bank of England meeting, which explicitly states that until the completion of the procedure for leaving the UK from the European Union, there can be no change in the parameters of the monetary policy of the regulator. European inflation data coincided with a preliminary estimate that showed an increase in inflation from 2.0% to 2.1%. Also, the results of the EU summit on the issue of Brexit generally coincided with expectations. That is, no results have been achieved. A number of unresolved issues remain between the parties, and as a result, Germany began preparations for the worst option, namely, that the UK leave the European Union without any agreement. For investors, perhaps this is the worst option, since the absence of an agreement is much worse, even than a bad agreement. So, everything that happened in Europe could not contribute to the strengthening of the single European currency and the pound.

The American construction statistics turned out to be not the most joyful, as the number of building permits issued decreased by 0.6%, while the number of construction projects started to decrease by 5.3%. A slightly different result was predicted, as the number of permits was expected to grow by 3.4%, and construction projects started by 2.5%. All this is not so important, since the content of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations has removed all questions regarding further actions to tighten monetary policy. Now, there is no doubt that in December, the Fed will once again raise the refinancing rate. There are also no hints that the Fed intends to revise the pace of the refinancing rate increase next year. We should not forget that inflation slowed down after the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations, so the intrigue still remains. Especially since Donald Trump continues to express his indignation at the fact that the Fed is raising the refinancing rate too quickly.

Today, the European Union summit is still ongoing, but nothing new is expected. In fact, the parties exchanged mutual recriminations, showing that so far, there still remain too many controversial issues. The data on retail sales in the UK, the growth rate of which can accelerate from 3.3% to 3.6%, which will support the pound. Meanwhile, in the US, it is expected that the total number of applications for unemployment benefits will increase by 3 thousand. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced by 2 thousand, while the number of repeat ones may be reduced by 5 thousand. The market still digests the situation around Brexit, as well as plans of central banks.

The euro / dollar currency pair, showing an active downward interest, overcame the range level of 1.1510 / 1.1550, while maintaining a bearish mood. It is likely to assume that the downward mood will continue, but under the quotation, the first periodic level of 1.1470 is already located, where, against the background of overheating, stagnation with a rollback is possible.

The pound / dollar currency pair continued the downward movement against the general background, leaving impulse candles behind. It is likely to assume that in the area of 1.3060 - 1.3050 values, there will be a gradual slowdown, with the formation of the next.