empty
 
 
Você está prestes a sair
www.instaforex.eu >
de um site operado pela
INSTANT TRADING EU LTD
Abrir Conta

20.02.201903:12 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Brent: appetite grows while eating

Long-term review
Essas informações são fornecidas a clientes profissionais e de varejo como parte da comunicação de marketing. Elas não contêm e não devem ser interpretadas como consultoria, recomendação de investimento ou uma oferta ou solicitação para se envolver em qualquer transação ou estratégia em instrumentos financeiros. O desempenho passado não é uma garantia ou previsão de desempenho futuro. A Instant Trading EU Ltd. não se responsabiliza pela exatidão ou integridade das informações fornecidas, ou por qualquer perda decorrente de qualquer investimento com base em análises, previsões ou outras informações fornecidas por um funcionário da Empresa, ou de outra forma. O termo de responsabilidade completo está disponível aqui.

Growth of the global risk appetite against the background of the de-escalation of the US-Chinese trade conflict has made it possible for oil to climb to the area of three-month highs. Black gold is growing along with global stock indexes in the hope that the end of the trade war will increase global demand. Although OPEC has reduced its growth forecast for this indicator to 1.24 million b/d for 2019, investors believe that the recovery of the economies of the eurozone and China will provide an opportunity for it to expand faster. If we add to this the effectiveness of operations to reduce the cartel's production as well as other producing countries by 1.2 million b/d, it becomes clear why Riyadh allows itself to make loud statements that the allies managed to bring the market to a normal state.

Leaders bear the greatest burden. Saudi Arabia plans to reduce production to 9.8 million b/d in March, which is 500 thousand b/d more than the country's commitments. Its exports have already declined by 1.3 million b/d in the first half of February. With OPEC's fall in production to 30.81 million b/d in January, the strengthening factor of global risk appetite made it possible for Brent and WTI to play a fifth of their value since the beginning of the year.

Dynamics of oil and OPEC production

Exchange Rates 20.02.2019 analysis

Finally, financial managers who previously preferred to take a wait-and-see position actually waited. By the end of the week, by February 12, they had increased their longs in the North Sea variety by 10%, which is the fastest growth rate since August. Shorts reduced by 5.5%. Thus, speculators have become net buyers of Brent at 32 million barrels in equivalent.

The weakness of the US dollar played a significant role in the rise of oil to three-month highs. Fans of the USD index have been helped for a long time by the desire of central bank competitors of the Fed to adhere to ultra-soft monetary policy, but the progress in Washington and Beijing talks reduced the demand for safe-haven assets, causing a serious blow to the US currency. At the same time, HSBC Holdings warns that if something goes wrong in further negotiations between Washington and Beijing, then black gold will plunge into a wave of sales.

Indeed, the rise in prices allows American manufacturers to feel at ease. The number of rigs from Baker Hughes rose to 857 in the week to February 15, and the US Energy Information Administration predicts that production in 2020 will reach a record figure of 13 million b/d. Companies registered in the United States are used to hedge risks and the growth of Brent and WTI allows them to increase production even at unprofitable price levels. Sooner or later this circumstance will be felt, however, during at time when the market is in a state of euphoria because of the expectations of the end of the trade war.

Technically, the breakthrough of resistance at $64.1 per barrel brought the bulls on Brent to an operational space. They were able to develop a correction as part of the transformation of the Shark pattern to 5-0 and are ready to push futures quotes to the level of 50% of the CD wave. It corresponds to $68.4.

Brent daily chart

Exchange Rates 20.02.2019 analysis

Marek Petkovich
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024

Open trading account

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.




Agora você está saindo do www.instaforex.eu, um site operado pela INSTANT TRADING EU LTD
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.

Turn "Do Not Track" off