23.05.201910:14 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of EUR/USD on May 23. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". The Fed is not going to change the key rate in the coming months

4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – up

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -86.8916

As we said in yesterday's two reviews of euro/dollar, there was no particular reaction to Mario Draghi's speech and the publication of the Fed's protocol. The head of the ECB did not touch on the monetary policy of the European Union in his speech in Frankfurt, and the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed showed only what was already clear to all participants of the Forex market. No changes in monetary policy are expected in the coming months, the country's economy does not need to be stimulated, inflationary pressure remains at an insufficient level, the labor market and wages continue to show positive dynamics. In addition, members of the Federal Open Market Committee noted that since the beginning of the year, economic risks have decreased slightly, but most are still concerned about the trade war between China and the States. What are traders waiting for today? Today in the eurozone, preliminary values of the indices of business activity in the areas of production and services Markit for May will be published. Despite the fact that these are not the final values, we recommend paying attention to these data, since last time they caused a surge of activity among traders. After lunch, similar data will be released in America, and we also do not recommend to lose sight of them.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1139

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.1078

Nearest resistance levels

R1 – 1.1169

R2 – 1.1200

R3 – 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement after several weak turns of correction. Thus, it is now recommended to trade short positions with targets at 1.1139 and 1.1108.

It is recommended to consider long positions on the euro/dollar pair very carefully and small lots not earlier than fixing the price above the moving average with the first target of 1.1200.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.