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For the last trading day, the currency pair euro / dollar showed underestimated volatility of 43 points, as a result of having a rollback after the recent rally. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the recent impulse led us to the level of 1.1200, where the quotation on local overheating slowed down and went into a technical rollback. Considering the trading schedule in general terms, we see that the clock basis in global terms is prone to decrease and the focus of the traders' attention is, of course, the current pivot point 1,1200, since in case of its breakdown there is a probability of full recovery of quotes.
The news background of the past day was empty in terms of statistical data, and the information background was also not active. The hype about the trade duties of India is being digested by the US State Department, and the answer, most likely, will be, but later. The "divorce" process of the UK & EU is busy while "dividing up" the British Prime Minister's seat, but spontaneous statements from Europe periodically come, as this time from the small European country of Luxembourg, where Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn said that it would be wrong to think that the new British Prime Minister may review the Brexit deal, since all the basic elements of the agreement have already been finally approved. That is, we hear from the EU all the same words of Jean-Claude Juncker, which he carries to everyone for more than a month.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have statistics on the construction sector of the United States, where there is a slight increase. The number of building permits issued in May is growing from 1.290M to 1.296M, while the growth shows new home construction from 1.235M to 1.239M. It is worth recalling that traders are waiting for tomorrow's meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations, and although there is no doubt that the parameters of monetary policy themselves will remain unchanged, everyone cares about a completely different question - the fate of the refinancing rate.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the rollback stage is still on the market, where traders took a waiting position. It is likely to assume that while the fluctuation in the range of 1,1200 / 1,1250 will remain, but then it is worthwhile to analyze the price fixing points outside these borders.
Based on the available information, it is possible to expand a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Purchase items are considered higher than 1.1250.
- Sell positions will be considered in case of resumption of the inertial course and price fixing lower than 1.1190.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there was an upward interest against the background of a rollback in the short term. Intraday perspective maintains downward interest. The medium-term perspective is in a neutral position, which is quite interesting, we observe.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(June 18 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 25 points. It is likely to assume that in the case of preservation of the framework and the waiting-for trading positions in anticipation of the FOMC meeting, the volatility may be reduced.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** Psychological level
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