26.06.201913:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURUSD: Consumer confidence in Germany is declining, but traders are waiting for important US statistics

The euro remained in a narrow side channel after data that indicated a decline in sentiment among German consumers. However, a similar figure in France, on the contrary, showed growth.

All attention in the afternoon will be focused on data for the United States, where the volume of orders for durable goods is expected to be released. This is a kind of indicator of consumer sentiment and expectations, as the decline in orders signals that Americans are more resorting to savings and reduce spending, which in the future has a negative impact on the economy.

As noted above, the release of the report from the GfK study group put pressure on the euro. According to the data, the mood of German consumers in July 2019 will deteriorate. The data are leading. The decline in sentiment is directly related to the weakening of expectations for income.

Thus, the leading index of consumer confidence GfK for July fell to 9.8 points from 10.1 points in June. Economists predicted that the indicator in July will be 10.0 points. The agency noted that the slowdown in the labor market directly affected the expectation of income growth. Thus, the indicator of expectations for income in June fell to 45.5 points, while in May it was still 57.7 points. Let me remind you that in May this year, the unemployment rate in Germany increased.

A similar figure in France rose, as consumers in June were very positive.

According to the statistics agency Insee, the consumer confidence index rose to 101 points in June against 99 points in May. The increase in the index was due to the prospect of growth in the standard of living of the French. Economists had forecast the index to fall to 98 points. The report also indicates that a number of households are set up for large purchases, which will lead to an increase in private consumption and support the economy in a bad time.

Today's statements by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin were ignored by the market, as they were not specific. Mnuchin once again reiterated that the trade agreement with China will be presented in the near future, as the degree of its readiness is 90%. The Minister of Finance also noted that the agreement is being prepared not for the sake of the agreement itself, but what will be the way to achieve it and sign it by the two parties - time will tell.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the further short-term downward correction will tend to the levels of 1.1320 and 1.1280, where larger buyers will declare themselves in the market. Without a good decline in the euro, it is unlikely to get a major continuation of the upward trend in the area of highs 1.1430 and 1.1500.