02.07.201901:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The dollar welcomes the truce of the United States and China, but the greenback's joy might be short-lived

The exchange rate of the US currency is growing in relation to the majority of its main competitors against the background of the fact that over the past weekend the United States and China reached an agreement on the resumption of trade negotiations.

"The market's positive reaction to the results of the meeting of the two leaders will be short-lived, and the dollar will resume falling," said Daisuke Karakama, chief economist at Mizuho Bank.

He noted that the parties did not reach a long-term peaceful resolution, while the desire of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) to lower the interest rate remains in force.

According to the analyst, the euro and the yen are the currencies that will benefit most from the weakness of the greenback.

Currency strategists at Wells Fargo forecast that in the medium term, EUR/USD will rise to a level of 1.18. However, they do not exclude growth to 1.20.

Nissay Asset Management experts believe that the strengthening of the dollar against the yen will be limited to 108.50, as the improvement in risk sentiment caused by the truce of Washington and Beijing will be short-lived. In addition, the potential easing of monetary policy by the Fed will put pressure on greenbacks.

"In the foreseeable future, the theme of the decline in the dollar exchange rate will become one of the key ones," said representatives of Aberdeen Standard Investments.

"The decision of the United States and China to resume negotiations almost did not affect the market's expectations regarding further Fed actions, so traders will continue to rely on weakening the greenback," the experts are certain.

In May, the USD index reached annual highs amid rising demand for the US currency as a safe-haven asset. However, since then, namely after the appearance of a signal about the readiness of the Fed, for the first time in ten years to reduce the interest rate, the greenback has fallen in price by more than 2%.

According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), big speculators have been reducing their long positions in the dollar for three weeks in a row. Derivatives market lays in quotes fast interest rate reduction in the United States and expects that the Fed can go for it in July.

According to analysts of DBS Group Holdings, given the fact that tensions in trade relations between the United States and China temporarily faded into the background, US statistics will again be in the focus of attention of traders.

This week, there will be data on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the US service sector, releases on the volume of industrial orders and the trade balance of the country, as well as a report on the US labor market in June.