24.07.201902:11 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold in anticipation of the Fed rate cut

Surprisingly, but a fact: amid the strengthening greenback, gold renews its perennial highs.

Since 2013, the precious metal has been trading in the range of $1050-1385 per ounce, and only recently strengthened expectations regarding easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the United States allowed quotes to come out.

The main obstacle in the path of "bulls" on XAU/USD is traditionally considered to be a strong dollar, but even now its position does not seem to be hopeless. What then is the matter?

If in 2014-2018, the US currency showed growth due to the tightening of the monetary rate of the Fed, then at present it remains stable primarily due to the weakness of competitors.

The Fed is signaling its intention to carry out monetary expansion for preventive purposes. The Bank of England in front of the "hawk" turns into a "dove". The ECB is also ready to ease monetary policy.

In conditions when it is difficult to find a strong currency, investors switch to other assets.

Promotions?

The historical highs of the S&P 500 index are undoubtedly impressive, but the higher it grows, the stronger the impression that this is a "bubble". The only driver of the rally is investor confidence in aggressively lowering the Fed rate. If the US central bank does not go in the wake of the market, the fall of the S&P 500 will be guaranteed.

Bonds?

Under normal conditions, bonds act as an alternative to gold and take advantage of it in the form of interest income. However, when the volume of negative-yield bonds traded on the global market increases by leaps and bounds, and currently exceeds $13 trillion, investors start looking at the yellow precious metal in a completely different way. Buying gold seems to be the best choice for them. In fact, which is preferable: not having interest income or paying extra for the fact that you own bonds?

Is it any wonder, then, that in the conditions of only a formally strong dollar, the increasing risks of lowering the S&P 500 and the growing number of traded bonds with negative yields, investors prefer gold? Gold ETF reserves have already exceeded 74 million ounces - less than 18 million below the record high of 92 million ounces recorded in 2011.

"The vector of the monetary policy of key central banks seems to have changed, so we are optimistic about the prospects for the yellow precious metal," said experts from Citigroup.

"We expect the Fed to cut its interest rate by 25 basis points at the July meeting. At the same time, we do not exclude that the regulator can reduce it immediately by 50 basis points. The beginning of the decline in interest rates in the United States will be a positive event for the bulls on gold," they added.

According to Citigroup's forecast, in the third quarter the price of gold will average $1,425 per ounce, and in the fourth quarter - $1,450.