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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed the third return to the correction level of 100.0% (1.1107), the rebound from it and a new turn in favor of the US currency. As a result, on August 22, the pair is expected to fall again in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% (1.1025). Bulls are now extremely weak, as they cannot even close above the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1107). Plus, the bearish divergence speaks in favor of the fall of the euro/dollar pair. Last night, a report from the last FOMC meeting was published. It contained information on the reasons for the reduction of the key rate in July. The document says that the decision to soften monetary policy was made based on low inflation, which has long been inconsistent with the Fed's expectations and is also called the "adjustment" of the current rate cut. Traders reacted very cautiously to the Fed protocol, as nothing new was learned from it. Weak inflation is no secret. After Donald Trump's annual pressure on Powell and the Fed as a whole, the rate cut was also expected. Now, the most interesting question is whether the Fed is ready for further easing of monetary policy or limiting itself to one rate cut. World experts and analysts believe that the trade war and the threat of a recession in the world economy will force the Fed to continue to stimulate the economy and reduce the cost of loans. However, Powell may have a different opinion, especially since, according to some members of the FOMC committee, the US economy is doing quite well. Thus, the rate cut in September is far from being resolved.
Still, until the closing of quotations of the euro-dollar pair above the correction level of 100.0% (1.1107), euro currency will be difficult to grow against the US dollar.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair performed a new rebound from the correction level of 100.0% (1.1107) and I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.1025, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.1107.
I recommend buying the EUR/USD pair with a target of 1.1180, and with a stop-loss level of 1.1107, if the closing is performed above the correction level of 100.0%.
GBP/USD – 4H.
Boris Johnson's trip to Germany and France was useless. French President Emmanuel Macron immediately echoed his colleague, President of the European Council Donald Tusk, and rejected the proposal to abolish the clause of the agreement defining the situation on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland after Brexit. At a press conference in Germany, Boris Johnson said that there are enough options to overcome the crisis in the negotiations on Brexit conditions. The Prime Minister said that if the parties manage to find an alternative to the backstop insurance plan, the new agreement can be concluded quickly enough. Johnson also said that Britain will not carry out checks on the border with Ireland, which remains part of the European Union. Thus, the parties failed to agree on anything specific, and 2 months and one week remaining before the Brexit date.
What's next? Further, Boris Johnson will have to return to London and think about how to complete the Brexit "No Deal", which is desperately opposed by half of the deputies, if not more. Moreover, Johnson will also have to think about the conspiracy against him, which, however, is not of any secret nature. Jeremy Corbyn, head of the Labor party, openly opposes Brexit "No Deal" and the current Prime Minister. He is going to get the support of his colleagues in this matter. Corbyn is ready, temporarily, to take over the government of the country with a single goal – to prevent Brexit "No Deal", which according to many experts will be a disaster for the country. This is the situation in the United Kingdom three years after the referendum.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair may resume the process of falling. Thus, I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.1853, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.2180, as 3 rebounds from the Fibo level of 127.2% have already been performed.
I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.2437 and with the stop-loss order below the level of 127.2% if the closure is performed above the level of 1.2180.
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