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A completely empty macroeconomic calendar did not prevent the single European currency from rushing from side to side, because instead of macroeconomic statistics, geopolitics took hold of the traders' minds. Saudi Arabia and the United States continue to accuse Iran of assaulting the world's largest oil refinery. Despite the fact that there is still no final conclusions of the commission investigating this case, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been appointed the culprit, and many fear that everything will end in another military operation, which could develop into a full-scale war in the Middle East. Although this is more like a game of nerves, even thinking about it is terrifying. But the main thing in this story is that, in economic terms, it is Europe that will be among the most affected. Even if there is no military action, and the United States will confine itself only to sanctions, it is European oil companies that will suffer huge losses, and in Europe itself there may be a local shortage of energy resources.
Today, the attention of traders will be focused on macroeconomic statistics, and more precisely, on preliminary data on business activity indices, both in Europe and in the United States. In the eurozone, it is expected that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector will increase from 47.0 to 47.3, while in the service sector it should decrease from 53.5 to 53.3. However, the result of such movements should be a mark on the place of the composite index of business activity. But in the United States, stability is expected only from the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector. The index of business activity in the services sector may grow from 50.7 to 51.5, which will lead to an increase in the composite index of business activity from 50.7 to 51.2.
Composite Business Activity Index (USA):
The EUR/USD pair continues to move within the horizontal movement relative to the main coordinates, where once again a support point was found within the psychological mark of 1.1000. Considering everything that happens in general terms, we see horizontal movement with the coordinates: 1.0936 - the lowest point, it is also the support of the current downward movement; 1,1000 - the psychological level of the periodic support; 1.1080 - periodic ceiling in the current fluctuation.
It is likely to assume that in the near future the interest will not change in any way, where the initial consideration is relative to the values of 1.1000/1.1025, having as a fact a temporary turbulence with the analysis of price consolidation points.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
• Long positions, we consider in case of price consolidation higher than 1.1030.
• We consider short positions in case of price consolidation lower than 1.0990.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators have turned into a downward trend due to the recent descent to the psychological level. At the same time, if there will be a temporary turbulence within the coordinates indicated above, the indicators on the minute and hour intervals can be volatile.
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