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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed two rebounds from the upper line of the downward trend channel, showing its unpreparedness for growth. Those rebounds led to a reversal of the pair in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.0918). A signal for sales was also received – "closing below the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1024)". Formally, there is also a signal for bulls – bullish divergence of the CCI indicator, but at the moment its low is already broken. Thus, the euro/dollar remains within the downward channel, which continues to determine the mood of traders. There was no information background on Friday; there were no interesting economic reports or speeches by senior US and EU officials. Bulls are still "on the fence" and continue to wait for the necessary information background.
What will be interesting this trading week? The week will begin without many revelations. Today, on Monday, business activity indices in services, production, and composite indices will be released in Germany, the European Union, and America. The values of these indices will be only preliminary, so the reaction of traders to them can be restrained. Nevertheless, close attention will be paid to business activity in the manufacturing sector of each of the above-mentioned countries. The reason is banal. It is a business activity in the industry that causes the greatest fears in terms of recession in both countries and the eurozone. In the European Union, everything has been bad for quite some time. Business activity in Germany and the EU is at very low levels, indicating a serious slowdown. In America, the situation is slightly better, but even there, business activity in industry threatens to fall under the "red line". So far, these indices put pressure only on the euro, but if America "follows the path" of the European Union, then the US dollar may begin to fall in price.
Just half an hour ago, the indices of business activity in Germany were released. As it turned out, traders took a very negative view of the fact that all three indices were much worse than expected. As for business activity in the manufacturing sector, it fell from 43.5 to 41.4. Disastrous value. Now, traders have to make sure that the situation in the European Union is no better since the locomotive of the European economy is experiencing such serious problems, and resume selling the euro.
Also today, Mario Draghi is scheduled to address the Committee on Economic and Monetary Issues of the European Parliament. The rhetoric of the ECB Chairman no longer falls under the definition of "hawkish", so the only question this time is whether it will be completely "dovish" or Draghi will try not to disappoint traders once again? Given the decline in rates at the last meeting of the ECB, there is no reason to count on anything optimistic. Thus, the euro on the first day of the week risks falling very much paired with the US dollar.
What to expect today from the euro/dollar currency pair?
On September 23, I expect the euro/dollar pair to continue falling in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% (1.0918). The information background from Germany has already harmed the euro, and news from the eurozone can finish off the euro, as well as Mario Draghi's speech in the afternoon. Also, indices of business activity in the United States will be released today, which may also decrease compared to the previous month. But for the euro, this is little consolation.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
I recommend selling the pair today with the target of 1.0927, as a new consolidation was made under the level of 1.1024. A stop-loss order above the level of 1.1029.
It will be possible to buy a pair after closing above a downward trend channel, but it is better to wait until it also consolidates above the correction level of 100.0% (1.1106).
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