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The forecasts that the US economy is slowing down came true. United States economic growth in the second quarter slowed from 2.7% to 2.3%. In principle, this did not surprise anyone, since that is what preliminary estimates showed. However, the single European currency was already losing ground in the morning, winning back the resignation of Sabine Lautenschlaeger, who represented Germany on the board of the European Central Bank. The reason for her resignation was a disagreement with the policies pursued by Mario Draghi. In addition to the actual resumption of the quantitative easing program, she made a reservation about reducing interest rates. In other words, Lautenschlaeger, almost directly warned everyone that the European Central Bank will reduce the refinancing rate in the near future. Although this is a logical step, after reducing the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5%. However, before the publication of the data on the United States GDP for the second quarter, the single European currency fully won back the decline, and then once again went down. The US economy may be slowing down, but the talk about a possible recession has been overshadowed by the realization that the European Central Bank will soon please everyone with a negative refinancing rate.
Nevertheless, a rebound in the dollar suggests itself, and market participants are just waiting for a suitable occasion. Today, we may be given such an occasion, in the form of data on orders for durable goods in the United States, which may decrease by 1.0%. Given that these data are largely ahead of industry and retail sales, they indicate a decline in key macroeconomic indicators in the near future. So fears about the recession will only grow.
Durable Goods Orders (US):
Nevertheless, a rebound in the dollar suggests itself, and market participants are just waiting for a suitable occasion. Today, we may be given such an occasion, in the form of data on orders for durable goods in the United States, which may decrease by 1.0%. Given that these data are largely ahead of industry and retail sales, they indicate a decline in key macroeconomic indicators in the near future. So fears about the recession will only grow.
Durable Goods Orders (US):
The EUR/USD pair still managed to maintain a downward interest, as a result of which it was not just a control rapprochement with the pivot point of 1.0926, but an attempt to consolidate below while maintaining downward interest. Considering what is happening in general terms, we see that the main downward trend is alive as never before, and if in the process of consolidating/pulling back, the quotation still manages to maintain bearish interest, then we can see an interesting price development in the region of 2017. It is worth considering that the quote kept the 1.0926 coordinate almost all of September and not the fact that we have already passed it.
It is likely to assume the formation of a temporary amplitude fluctuation in the region of 1.0900/1.0930, where it is worth analyzing the behavior of quotes and consolidation points. That is, in the work we take two Buy & Sell orders at once, after which we liquidate the previous order and proceed to the conduct of a moving stop.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
• Long positions, we consider above the level of 1.0935, with the prospect of a move to 1.0965-1.0980.
• We consider short positions in case of price consolidation lower than 1.0895, with the prospect of a move to 1.0850.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that amid an intense downward mood, indicators unanimously record a sell signal, but in case of accumulation we can see a diverse interest.
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