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GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and began the process of returning to the correctional level of 61.8% (1.2836) after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator. Thus, the growth of the British pound is temporarily put on pause. At the top in the area of 1.3011-1.3044, there is a strong resistance zone, through which it will be very difficult for bull traders to breakthrough. Thus, I believe that a scenario with a fall in the pair's quotes is more likely, first to the Fibo level of 61.8%, and then further down. There are no new emerging divergences in any indicator today.
Given the fact that traders actively continue to ignore any economic reports from the UK and America, it remains only to analyze political news related not even to Brexit, but the elections. However, unfortunately, there is nothing special to analyze here now. All parties continue to prepare for elections by holding debates and informing the people of the UK about their plans and political programs. However, the main points and aspects of these political programs have long been known to traders, and they are now interested in aspects related to Brexit. Thus, by and large, traders have no choice but to wait for December 12th. I believe that if something out of the ordinary does not happen, then low activity will persist until December 12th.
The FOMC minutes from the last meeting will be released tonight. This document usually contains information about monetary policy, the mood of the members of the open market committee on a certain course. But, as a rule, this document is only a kind of summing up, thus, it is not necessary to count on serious bursts of emotions in the market. There are no economic reports in the UK this week on the news calendar.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The pound/dollar pair began to fall, but the overall low activity of traders does not allow us to assume serious exchange rate changes until the end of the week. Thus, purchases, from my point of view, are still not very expedient, especially considering the bearish divergence, the lack of a short-term information background and a negative long-term one. It is also impractical to sell the pair after exiting the upward range. It is better to wait for some time, to observe the development of events.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.
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