29.11.201900:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Euro: wait and believe

Following a short pause, US President Donald Trump signed the bill on human rights and democracy in Hong Kong approved by the US Congress. China considered this an interference in the internal affairs of the country and promised to answer.

However, it is hardly worth expecting another round of escalation of the trade war. With the slowdown in the national economy, China is interested in resolving trade disputes. A recent issue of $6 billion worth of Chinese government bonds denominated in dollars may speak in favor of this assumption. On the one hand, Beijing does not really need the US currency. In addition, it can easily get it if it sells a part of the treasuries. Another thing is the accumulation of dollars for interventions, which will become quite possible in the light of the currency pact of the United States and China.

Thus, it is doubtful that the intervention of America in the internal affairs of China will force the latter to refuse to conclude a trade deal with the United States. If this is true, then the bulls on EUR/USD have only a little time to tolerate.

In the short term, the bears' breakthrough of support near the bottom of the 10th figure may lead to a continuation of their movement down, however, fans of the euro still have hopes for an end to the trade war, the "soft" Brexit and the economic recovery in Germany, especially since the French economy, unlike the German, si doing pretty good. France consumer confidence in November jumped to the highest levels since Emmanuel Macron won the 2017 presidential election.

Pressure on the euro as a funding currency has a decrease in volatility to record low levels. At the same time, mixed statistics for the United States are holding back the bears from taking action. US GDP expanded by 2.1% in the third quarter with a forecast of growth of 1.9%, however, the basic index of personal consumption spending slowed in October from 1.7% to 1.6%, which makes the chances of an interest rate hike by theFederal Reserve slim. Therefore, the bulls on EUR/USD have only one thing left - to wait and believe that if their opponents are not stopped by the level of 1.1000, then support will make 1.0960.