08.07.202008:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Struggle between economic recovery and COVID-19 leads to a prolonged period of consolidation in the currency market (we expect EUR/USD pair to move in the range and GBP/USD pair to decline)

The situation on the currency market remains extremely confusing and ambiguous. There are two main factors - the global economic recovery as a whole, Chinese, American and European separately and coronavirus infection, that is simply suffocating the United States, are leading and alternately have a full impact on the mood of investors around the world.

Last month's event showed that the market almost completely took into account the price of the post-pandemic recovery factor in the wake of emerging economic statistics, which showed an acceleration in the growth rate of the economies of the USA, China and large Europe. Therefore, new impulses are needed at the moment, primarily of a statistical nature, which would convince market participants again that the process is not slowed down, that it continues and even with some "creaking".

So, the data on the number of open vacancies in the JOLTS labor market for May which was published yesterday showed a more noticeable increase to 5.397 000 against the forecast of growth of 4.850 000 and the previous April value, revised down to 4. 996 000, which helped to suspend sales on the stock markets.

By the way, these strong values of the employment indicator held back the noticeable strengthening of the US dollar, not allowing it to grow against the main currencies in full. Assessing this, we believe that it is the positive dynamics of published economic statistics that will act as a hindrance to the growth of the US currency.

Also yesterday, speeches by Fed members attracted attention, who generally spoke about the restoration of the American economy and the situation on the labor market, although they did not forget about the situation around coronavirus infection. So the head of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, R. Bostic, said that "the tension in the housing market is not as serious as previously expected" and that the Fed's active actions to support the economy as a whole have eased the tension in the markets. Richmond's Fed President, T. Barkin, said that he "has no fears that the Fed's balance sheet will cause inflation" and that the regulator "will have to do more with high unemployment." At the same time, San Francisco's Federal Reserve President, M. Dali, also said that "the labor market is in better shape than it could be."

In general, the current picture fully indicates that only a reduction of the virus will lead to a full-fledged change in the financial markets, and for now, the recovery factors and the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to be alternately conducted by the markets.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair still remains in the range 1.1165-1.1350. We consider it possible to buy a pair at a decline with a likely return to the upper limit of the range.

The GBP/USD pair broke out of the range 1.21345-1.2540. If it does not hold above 1.2540, it will return to this range again.