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EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On July 13, the euro/dollar pair continued its growth process after another rebound from the upward trend line. However, after reaching the previous local peak, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began the process of falling in the direction of the same trend line. Meanwhile, all the news coming from the US is still only about the coronavirus. First, it became known about a Chinese scientist from the Wuhan laboratory who fled from China, who said that the Chinese authorities knew from the very beginning about the danger of the virus, as well as that it is transmitted from person to person. Then came information about the tensions between the U.S. epidemiologist Anthony Fauci, who repeatedly stated that the virus was extremely dangerous and made pessimistic forecasts, and Donald Trump, who repeatedly stated that the virus would not survive April and was nothing dangerous for Americans. Last night, it also became known that because of this quarrel, many in the United States turned against the President of the United States, thus supporting Dr. Fauci. It is noted that scientists, researchers, doctors and especially Democrats publicly condemn the actions of Trump and his unwillingness to communicate with Fauci at a time when the country was overwhelmed by the epidemic.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the euro/dollar pair again performed an increase to the level of 1.1347, a reversal in favor of the US currency and began to fall. A fall in the direction of which is hard to say now, as the pair changes direction twice a day and each time passes 50-70 points in one direction. Yesterday, the bearish divergence in the MACD indicator could help the pair start falling, however, I believe that the divergence has nothing to do with it. Rather, this is the movement itself now, with frequent reversals. Thus, levels and other graphical signals are not the most important right now.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the euro/dollar pair performed another reversal in favor of the European currency after rebounding from the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1261). However, given the picture of the lower charts, I can not say that now the quotes will rush to the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.1405).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the euro/dollar pair rebounded from the lower line of the "narrowing triangle", which still allows traders to expect growth in the direction of the 1.1600 level (the upper line of the "triangle"). Several charts allow for possible growth in the direction of 1.1500-1.1600.
Overview of fundamentals:
On July 13, there were no economic reports or events in America or the European Union. Thus, there was no information background, which did not particularly affect the nature of the pair's trading.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - business sentiment index from the ZEW Institute (09:00 GMT).
EU - change in industrial production (09:00 GMT).
US - consumer price index (12:30 GMT).
On July 14, the European Union will release a fairly important indicator of industrial production. In her last speech, Christine Lagarde noted that manufacturing is the most important sector in the economic recovery. In America, inflation will be released – also an important report.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed exactly the changes in the mood of traders that I expected to see. The first thing to note is the growth of long-contracts by the "Non-commercial" group and a much smaller number of open short-contracts. Thus, speculators in the reporting week looked in the direction of purchases of the British. However, the "Commercial" group, on the contrary, increased short-contracts, and in total the greater number belongs to short. However, the first group of traders is still more important. And the trend, if you look at the upper half of the illustration, is clearly "bullish". At the beginning of April, there were 161 thousand contracts in the hands of speculators, now – 186 thousand.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations to traders:
Today, I recommend buying the euro currency with the goal of 1.1496, if a new close above the level of 1.1347 is made. However, I recommend that you be careful with your purchases, as the movements are now alternating 50-70 in each direction. I do not recommend rushing with sales of the pair yet. To do this, wait for the quotes to close below the trend line on the hourly chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private equity, and large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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