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The EUR/USD currency pair fell by 128 points during the last trading day of the week (at the time of writing). For most of the past day and on Friday morning, an upward correction took place. In yesterday's evening article, we said that it is best to wait for the new MACD signal to sell. And they emphasized that the closer the indicator turns down to zero, the better. In practice, it turned out that the indicator turned down just around the zero mark and began a strong fall. Thus, it was necessary to open short positions on this signal and by the end of the day, the price reached (almost) the third support level of 1.1751. Even if novice traders have not closed positions near this level, it can be done now, which will also bring about 60-70 points of profit. It is recommended to consider options for opening new positions in the new week.
On August 21, the European Union was scheduled to publish business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors. Recall that these indicators reflect the activity of purchasing managers and are an indicator of changes in business conditions in the industry. Any value above 50 means that everything is fine in the area. However, if the index value decreases, it means that the situation is still slightly worse, but as long as the value is above 50, everything is fine. Today, all three indices of business activity in the Eurozone were worse than expected by traders, and significantly decreased compared to the previous month – July. It cannot be said that these indices were the reason for the fall of the European currency. Most likely, they lie in the fact that the fall of the euro has been long overdue. But the very fact of a downturn in services and manufacturing suggests that the European economy may again face slowing problems in the coming weeks. Moreover, in some EU countries, there are signs of a new wave of the "coronavirus" pandemic. If Europe is hit again by a pandemic, it will mean that its economy will start to slow down again by almost 100%. In turn, this will affect the euro currency itself and its rate. The US dollar has fallen in price for a long time and strongly, and if problems start in the European Union now, this will be an additional motive for traders to get rid of the European currency. Thus, in the future, the euro currency may begin to experience problems. US business activity indices, on the contrary, exceeded the forecast values, which speaks in favor of the US economic recovery.
On August 21, the following scenarios are possible:
1) Buying a pair at this time is not recommended to consider. Even if the upward trend resumes from the current positions (which is unlikely), signals are needed for new purchases of the euro currency. Technical factors now speak in favor of the growth of the dollar. Thus, to consider the pair's purchases, you need to wait for the formation of a new upward trend, building trend formations and patterns.
2) But we recommend selling the pair at this time. However, today it is better, on the contrary, to close all transactions for sale, and consider new ones next week. However, the downward trend remained at the end of Friday, so you need to wait for a new pullback of quotes to the top, and then wait for the signal to sell again. New goals will be formed on Monday. Today, all the goals were fulfilled.
What's on the chart:
Price levels of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction it is preferable to trade now.
Up/down arrows – show when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.
MACD indicator (10,20,3) – a histogram and a signal line, the intersection of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use it in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.
Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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