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Condições de Negociações
Ferramentas
GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair consolidated over the downward trend corridor and rose to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2789). The pair's rebound from this level allowed it to perform a small drop, after which the quotes returned to this level again. It seems that bear traders are not yet able to move the pair down anymore. However, until the closing of quotes above the level of 161.8%, traders also do not have to count on stronger growth. There was also little news from the UK on Friday. Nevertheless, there is something. For example, Boris Johnson said that it is still possible to reach an agreement with the European Union on a trade deal, which immediately caused a huge number of skeptical jokes on the Internet and the media. No one believes that the parties can even come close to an agreement. And after Johnson's controversial internal market bill, which gives the British government the right to unilaterally violate the 2019 Brexit agreement with the EU, the chances of any new deals have fallen to almost zero. However, British Cabinet Minister Michael Gove personally went to Brussels to resume negotiations. Why him and not David Frost? It is noted that Gove will meet with the Vice-President of the European Commission Maros Sefcovic. The parties will again discuss relations between the countries after Brexit is finally completed.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair failed to consolidate under the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2720). The bullish divergence in the MACD indicator helped start the growth process, however, it is very weak. As a result, the pair's quotes rose to the upper line of the descending trend corridor. Closing above it will allow traders to expect a more serious growth of the pair than in the last few days, in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2867). The rebound of quotes from the upper line of the descending corridor will increase the chances of resuming the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.2543).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation under the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2776). On this chart, traders can now expect a further drop in quotes in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2516).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed under the lower downward trend line, thus, a false breakout of this line followed earlier. The pair returns to a downward trend.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no important news or economic reports in the UK on Friday. Thus, sluggish trading is explained by a weak information background.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
On September 28, the calendars of economic events in the UK and America are empty. The information background may be completely absent today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report):
The latest COT report on the pound, released last Friday, turned out to be boring and uninteresting. The "Non-commercial" group of traders closed approximately 2,000 long and short contracts in the reporting week, thus, its mood has not changed much according to the latest COT report. Other groups have less influence on the market. However, I note the fact that both the "Non-commercial" group and the "Commercial" group now have almost complete equality in the volumes of long and short contracts. Even the total number of currently open contracts for all groups in the market is almost equal. This rarely happens. The last report generally does not allow me to draw any important conclusions about future possible changes.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the British currency with a target of 1.2625 if a new rebound is made from the level of 161.8% (1.2789) on the hourly chart. I do not recommend opening purchases of the British currency until the quotes are fixed above the downtrend corridor on the 4-hour chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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