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US economic statistics released yesterday supported the positive sentiment in world markets and put pressure on the US dollar.
The presented data on GDP, the number of new jobs and the value of the index of unfinished sales in the real estate market for September turned out to be higher than expected, which caused an increase in demand for company shares and a simultaneous weakening of the US dollar.
According to the published data, the revised GDP values for the 2nd quarter were slightly higher than expected -31.4% against 31.7%, the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector from ADP in September also increased significantly, by 749,000, against the forecasted 650,000, and most importantly, the figures for August were revised upward to 481,000. In addition, the values of the unfinished sales index on the real estate market for September were also good, which surged 8.8% against the forecasted growth of 3.2% and growth of 5.9% a month earlier.
The market took the data as a clearly good signal after a series of weak and disappointing values, including employment figures. The value of the number of new jobs from ADP is preceded by official employment data from the US Department of Labor, which will be released tomorrow. Although they do not always coincide with them, they are a good leading indicator in most cases. That's why there was a good upward trend in the US stock market on Wednesday. Investors were even distracted from the ambiguous outcome of the first debate between D. Trump and J. Biden, which turned into mutual accusations of candidates, becoming personal.
However, it is difficult to say whether the positive dynamics on the markets and the weakening of the dollar will continue today. The market has won back yesterday's positivity and will now closely monitor the publication of a new piece of statistics – the values of the manufacturing PMI from ISM in the States. We expect it to add to 56.2 points in September from 56.0 points. If the indicator does not disappoint and grows above expectations, this will lead to a continued rally in the stock markets and to a new weakening of the dollar in the currency market.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair is gaining support amid rising demand for risky assets. If the price breaks through the level of 1.1745, growth will continue to the level of 1.1785.
The USD/CAD pair is declining amid positive Canadian GDP data, higher crude oil prices, and a global weakening of the dollar. If the price falls below the level of 1.3285, it will decline further to 1.3235.
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