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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair fell to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3522), rebounded from it, and turned in favor of the British. As a result, the growth process began in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3625), the rebound from which will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of 1.3522. Closing the pair's rate above the level of 100.0% will increase the chances of further growth in the direction of the level of 1.3698. Meanwhile, coronavirus anti-records are being recorded again in the UK. Let me remind you that during the first wave of the pandemic, it was in the UK that the largest number of deaths from COVID among European countries was recorded. Later, the UK government was repeatedly criticized for its weak response to the epidemic. Even though vaccination has already begun in the country and almost 4 million citizens have already received the vaccine, people continue to get sick and die. In terms of mortality among all countries of the world last week, the UK took first place. An average of 16.5 deaths per 1 million people. America, by the way, takes only tenth place in this list. However, traders are still not too worried about the British pound. Even though in 2021, several representatives of the Bank of England have already made very unpleasant statements, the pound sterling continues to trade very cheerfully. In the near future, the British dollar may return to the level of 1.3700.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the British currency and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3701). The fourth rebound from this level will again work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3481). Closing above the level of 1.3701 will increase the probability of further growth of the British pound.
GBP/USD - Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). Closing the pair below the level of 100.0% will work in favor of the US currency and some drop in quotes.
GBP/USD - Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed above the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.
Overview of fundamentals:
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was scheduled to speak in the UK on Monday, but there was no news about this in the media. There was nothing else interesting that day.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
On January 19, the calendars of economic events in the UK and USA are empty. Thus, the information background will be absent today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from January 12 finally showed a major change in the mood of major market players. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 10,460 long contracts during the reporting week and this is the maximum number of open long contracts in recent months. Thus, the mood of speculators became sharply more "bullish". 3,200 short contracts were also opened. Thus, in general, speculators opened almost 14,000 new contracts, which also did not happen for a very long time. Traders seem to be starting to believe in the British pound again and are also willing to trade the pound more actively than in the past few months. Brexit is behind us, the UK and the EU continue to trade duty-free with each other, so interest in the British is starting to return.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to make new purchases of the British dollar now when the quotes close above the level of 100.0% (1.3625) on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3698. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling at a rebound from the level of 100.0% (1.3625) on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3522.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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