21.01.202115:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD analysis on January 21. What actions can and should the European Central Bank take?

The wave marking of the upward section of the trend still has a fully completed five-wave form. Thus, the current wave marking assumes the construction of a new downward trend section. If the current assumption is correct, then the decline in quotes will continue with the targets located around the 19th and 18th figure. However, do not forget that the demand for the US dollar has been extremely low in recent months, thus, the upward trend may well resume and become more complicated.

The wave count of a smaller scale also indicates the completion of building an upward trend channel. The assumed wave 5-5 has acquired a completed form, and a successful attempt to break the minimum of the assumed wave 4 indicates the readiness of the instrument to build at least three waves of a downward trend. However, three waves down have already been built and the continuation of the decline in the European currency will largely depend on the ECB meeting today.

In recent days, most of the attention of traders has been focused on the United States. At the end of his presidential term, Donald Trump staged wars against Congress. Joe Biden took the oath of office and became president. Janet Yellen, as the future Secretary of the Treasury (already current), made a voluminous speech. In the European Union, in 2021, there were only a couple of economic reports and one speech by Christine Lagarde. In 2021, the European currency is mainly declining, so I now have a reasonable question: is it a simple correction or the beginning of a new downward trend? For example, the pound sterling still tends to increase and the upward trend of the pound/dollar instrument is likely to become more extended. Will there be anything similar for the European currency? It will largely depend on today's ECB meeting and the decisions that will be taken at it. Many analysts believe that the meeting will be "passing", that is, no important decisions will be made. However, the ECB representatives may hint or openly announce a new expansion of the post-pandemic stimulus program (PEPP). This program has already been expanded several times and at the moment its volume is 1.85 trillion euros. The last expansion took place at the end of 2020, so it is possible that the ECB will not immediately expand it again in early 2021. Nevertheless, something needs to be done with the growing exchange rate of the euro currency. As the inflation report published recently showed, the indicator continues to remain at a record low of -0.3% y/y. This means that prices in the European Union (in general) are declining compared to prices a year ago. Such inflation slows down economic growth, which has already had big problems in the last year. So the ECB needs a cheaper euro. But a cheaper dollar is also needed in America, with its huge national debt and a hole in the budget. Thus, the question is whether the ECB will try to lower the euro rate at least with the help of verbal interventions.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair presumably completed the construction of an upward trend section. Thus, at this time, I recommend selling the instrument with targets located around the 20th and 19th figure for each new signal of the MACD indicator "down". However, there are reasons to expect the resumption of the construction of the upward section after three waves down, which can already be built.