31.03.202109:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on March 31, 2021

It takes investors only one look at the preliminary data on inflation in Spain to panic. Indeed, the jump in inflation from 0.0% to 1.3% is hardly even sharp. This is some kind of orbital flight. It should have grown to 0.9% according to the most ambitious forecasts. However, such predictions were rather considered marginal, and basically everyone agreed that the growth rate of consumer prices would accelerate to 0.3%. And even though this is only about the fourth economy of the eurozone, and even about inflation, the growth of which is perceived more as a positive factor, a real panic still began on the market. And the thing is that a gradual rise in inflation is positive, and not as sharp as it is now. The rapid growth of inflation threatens to unwind an inflationary spiral, which does not bring anything good. Generally, investors received another confirmation that everything in Europe is proceeding exactly according to this scenario, and the European Central Bank will soon have to fight not for the growth of inflation to the target level of 2.0%, but for its reduction to this value. But this implies a radical turn of monetary policy towards tightening, for which the European economy is clearly not ready now. The preliminary data on inflation in Germany only reinforced these fears, as the growth rate of consumer prices accelerated from 1.3% to 1.7%. Growth of up to 1.5% was expected. In general, inflation is growing much faster than expected.

Inflation (Germany):

Today, preliminary data on inflation across the euro area are published, and according to the most modest forecasts, it should accelerate from 0.9% to 1.2%. However, after yesterday's data, it is most likely necessary to assume that it will accelerate to at least 1.3%, and quite possibly, even more so. So investors will get definite confirmation of their fears about the unwinding of the inflationary spiral. This means that the sale of the single European currency will continue. But it will start much earlier, with the publication of preliminary data on inflation in France, where the growth rate of consumer prices should accelerate from 0.6% to 1.1%. The growth is impressive. However, now there is almost no doubt that in France, inflation will be even higher than expected.

Inflation (Europe):

The EUR/USD currency pair still showed speculative activity after a two-day stagnation. As a result, the lower limit of the 1.1760/1.1805 range fell under the onslaught of sellers, and the quote headed towards the 1.1700 mark.

The market dynamics have an acceleration signal, exceeding the level of volatility of the past days almost twice.

If we proceed from the current location of the quote, we can see that a stop occurred within the 1.1700 mark and as a result, a stagnation - a rollback.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, it is clear that the quote without any changes follows in the structure of the correction course from the high of the medium-term trend of 1.2349, where, considering the recent decline, we have a prolongation of this course.

In this situation, we can assume that the downward interest still takes place in the market. But before going further, traders need to keep the quote lower than 1.1700 for a four-hour period. In the opposite case, there may be a local stagnation - a rebound from the level of 1.1700.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, it can be seen that the indicators of technical instruments on the hourly and daily periods signal a sale, due to an intense downward movement. Minute intervals have a variable signal* (buy/sell*) due to the stagnation stage - a pullback from the level of 1.1700.