19.04.202113:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: New price war in the oil market

Oil producers are concerned that the current price increases may cause another war in the oil market.

Last year, the US tried to respond to the collapse in the oil market by cutting back capital expenditures and reducing oil drillings. Jobs cuts and mergers with competitors were also halted to strengthen balance sheets.

As a result, production in the country dropped by approximately 2 million barrels per day, more than the overall production in the entire Gulf of Mexico.

But as prices increase this year, mainly due to economic recovery and unilateral cut in Saudi Arabia's production, the temptation to boost oil production in the US grows.

In fact, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that oil production in the US will average 11.9 million bpd in 2022, which is about 1 million barrels, or 9% higher than the average this quarter. But Sheffield disagrees on this, arguing that producers know the rates and will stick to their policies.

So far, there hasn't been much evidence that US manufacturers have significantly increased activity in this area, but investors will get a clearer picture when companies begin reporting first quarter earnings in the coming weeks.

Sheffield sees total US production jumping at a rate of 2% to 3% per year, with most of the growth coming from the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico, where Pioneer is one of the largest producers. According to him, all other shale deposits will decline.