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The new trading day began with a slight weakening of the single European currency, although just in the European session, there is simply no reason for this. The fact is that the index of business activity in the service sector should grow from 50.5 points to 55.1 points. And if the final data coincide with the preliminary estimate, then the composite index will clearly come out better than the forecasts. A preliminary estimate showed an increase in the composite business activity index from 53.8 points to 56.9 points. But the thing is that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which was published on Tuesday, came out significantly better than the preliminary estimate. Ergo, the data on business activity indices will probably be better than forecasts, which of course will be reflected in the growth of the single European currency. Although, the growth itself will be quite modest.
Composite PMI (Europe):
But still, American statistics are of much greater importance today. In addition to business activity indices, a number of data on the labor market are also published. In the euro area, business activity indices are likely to be better than forecasts. After all, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector published on Tuesday showed much higher growth than when the preliminary estimate was published. Thus, if the index of business activity in the service sector grows from 64.7 points to 70.1 points, then the composite index will clearly grow slightly more than from 63.5 points to 68.1 points. Moreover, the total number of applications for unemployment benefits may decrease by 68 thousand. And the reduction is expected both for initial applications and for repeated ones. But the most important news of the day will be the ADP data on employment, which may grow by 600 thousand. The growth is quite impressive, and before the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor, it will clearly be perceived as an extremely positive moment.
Employment Change (United States):
The EUR/USD currency pair, during the price rebound from the 1.2235 / 1.2245 resistance area, headed towards the previously known level of 1.2160, which reflects the pivot point from May 20 and 21. The natural basis associated with these coordinates led to a reduction in the volume of short positions and, as a result, to a local pullback.
The market dynamics has signs of acceleration, where speculators easily drive the quote by 50 points.
If we proceed from the current position of the quote, we can see that the local rollback from the value of 1.2160 was again replaced by a downward move, which could jeopardize the pivot point.
In this situation, we can assume that the downward interest is still taking place in the market, where holding the price below 1.2180 will lead to another touch of the 1.2160 level. The greatest interest from sellers will arise after the price has been kept below 1.2160 for a four-hour period, if the natural basis associated with the rebound disappears.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it can be seen that the indicators of technical instruments in the minute and hour periods have a sell signal due to a downward cycle. The daily period, as before, signals a buy, for the upward movement from the beginning of April.
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