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EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair performed a new reversal in favor of the European currency during Monday and began a new growth process in the direction of the level of 1.2238, which did not last long. Already tonight, the quotes performed a local reversal in favor of the US dollar and began a slight fall. In general, the pair continues to move absolutely without a clear direction. It is best seen on the 4-hour chart. On the hourly chart, traders ignore almost all levels. There is no channel or trend line, so signals are formed extremely rarely. I recommend paying more attention to the 4-hour schedule and older. On Monday, the information background was absent for the euro/dollar pair.
There were a few news items during the day. However, they were from the category of not having an impact on currencies. For example, following the meeting of the G7 countries, it was decided to introduce a single corporate tax for the whole world. Large corporations that conduct their business in "tax havens" will still pay 15% of income tax. It also emerged from the US Treasury Secretary that Joe Biden and his team are continuing to promote their $ 4 trillion aid package, which is now part of the budget for the 2022 fiscal year. The Democrats are not inferior to the Republicans on this issue and can do without their approval. However, the record spending budget has not yet been adopted. Janet Yellen also said that the surge in inflation would not be long-term. The factors that led to an increase in inflation in the first half of 2021 will disappear in 2022. And today, traders will closely monitor the level of GDP in the Eurozone. It is the only noteworthy report of the day.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes completed a new close under the ascending trend line and the level of 1.2223, allowing traders to count on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today. However, the entire movement of the pair is now very unstable, and the growth is very difficult for the US dollar.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair closed above 161.8% (1.2027). But at the moment, all the charts signal different movements and directions. There is no unity in the graphic picture.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has consolidated the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 7, the European Union and America did not have a single economic report. Thus, the information background was absent on Monday.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - index of business sentiment from the ZEW Institute (09:00 UTC).
EU - change in GDP (09:00 UTC).
On June 8, the calendar of economic events in the United States is again empty. However, a couple of reports will be released in the European Union. Traders may not pay attention to them, but I can't help but pay attention to them.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which again showed an increase in the "bullish" mood among speculators. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened only 751 long contracts, but at the same time, got rid of almost 4 thousand short contracts. Thus, speculators continue to contribute to the growth of the European currency in one way or another. In general, the changes in all categories of traders are minimal. In total, 224 long contracts and 2,142 short contracts were closed, which indicates a low activity of major players in the reporting week.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I do not recommend selling the pair today, as there is no single potential signal on the horizon. Traders currently ignore many levels. I do not recommend buying the pair now, as there is a high probability of changing the direction of the trend to "bearish."
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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