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EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair continued the process of falling during Friday and almost reached the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1837) by the end of the day. The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the Fibo levels of 61.8% (1.1919) and 50.0% (1.1985). Let me remind you that the fall in quotes began last Wednesday when the Fed summed up the results of its meeting. Since then, the European currency has been falling, and the US dollar is rising. However, last Friday, the information background for the euro/dollar pair was extremely weak. By and large, there was nothing at all. Nevertheless, the fall in quotes continued, which indicates that the Fed's effect on traders will continue for three whole days. Thus, today, on Monday, the most interesting question is whether the fall in quotes will continue for the fourth day in a row.
From my point of view, such a strong reaction of traders to the Fed meeting is excessive. Let me remind you that the Fed has not made any vital decisions and changes in monetary policy. There were only raised GDP forecasts and a few hints of a curtailment of the stimulus program "sometime in the future." The speech of the ECB chief economist Philip Lane, who said that it was too early for the European regulator to think about curtailing the economic stimulus program, could also have a specific negative impact on the euro. In general, now the rhetoric of the representatives of the ECB and the Fed diverges very slightly. However, the US dollar has received very strong support from traders over the past few days, and I honestly believe that such a drop in the pair's quotes is too strong and does not reflect the accurate picture of things in the market.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes closed under a downward trend corridor. I would once again draw attention to the fact that a significant event caused such a strong growth of the dollar, and this does not mean that the US currency will continue to be in high demand among traders. The rebound of quotes from the level of 1.1836 may allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the euro currency and some growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2027).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and consolidated under the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). Thus, even on this chart, the fall process increased its chances in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1729).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 18, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States were empty. There was no background information on this day.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (12:30 UTC).
On June 21, the calendar of economic events in the United States is still empty, but in the European Union, Christine Lagarde will speak. The information background today may be moderate.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed a weakening of the "bullish" mood among speculators. During the week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders closed 5,525 long contracts and a total of 401 short contracts. Thus, the systematic disposal of long contracts began. But their total number in the hands of speculators remains almost twice as large as the number of short contracts. And in general, the changes are not so big now that we can talk about a complete change of mood from "bullish" to "bearish." I believe that speculators are still focused on buying the European currency, but there is still no data on the days after the Fed meeting when the eurodollar pair collapsed.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to sell the pair if the quotes close at 76.4% - 1.1837 on the hourly chart with the targets of 1.1772 and 1.1704. I recommend buying the pair in case of a rebound of quotes from the level of 1.1836 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.1919 and 1.1985.
TERMS:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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