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On Monday, oil prices advanced for the fifth session in a row. Brent futures for August delivery added 0.07% to trade at $73.56 per barrel. At the same time, WTI futures for July delivery increased by 0.52% to $72.04.
Oil prices are mainly boosted by investors' hope for a rise in global demand amid the vaccination campaign that has been rolled out all around the globe. According to the mass media, the number of infected people began falling. As a result, countries are withdrawing restrictive measures and people are starting to travel. Last weekend, the US Transportation Security Administration recorded the maximum number of passengers at airport checkpoints in the last two years, that is more than 2 million people.
Oil prices are also growing due to the prolonged negotiations on the Iranian deal. Iran ranks fourth in the world in terms of oil reserves. Its economy entirely depends on oil selling. Former US President Donald Trump, during his presidency, imposed sanctions on the Iranian energy sector. As a result, refineries in many countries began to ignore Iranian oil.
However, now, Iran has an opportunity to recover its oil exports by signing an agreement with the current US administration. Once the agreement is reached, the market will be invaded with Iranian oil. That is why the Iranian government has increased its oil production to 3.8 million barrels a day from 2.1 million barrels. Thus, in 6 six month or a bit more, Iran will export approximately 1 million barrels a day that is 1% from the global export. Such an inflow of oil will surely lead to a slump in prices.
However, last Friday, the presidential elections in Iran were held. Cleric Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's top judge, won the race. Earlier, the newly-elected president harshly criticized the Iranian nuclear deal. Raisi's views on a tougher political course may slow down the negotiation process. Thus, additional oil will hardly appear in the market.
At the same time, OPEC+ remains cautious about rising oil production. Although in the US and the EU, economic activity is rising, the oil market will hardly show a positive reaction to the additional oil supplier.
In the Atlantic region, tropical storm Claudette is expected. Once it develops into a hurricane, oil production platforms, including the Gulf Coast refineries, will be closed.
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