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The US dollar index climbed towards 108.30 on Tuesday before reversing sharply lower to 107.53 intraday. The index oscillated within the 80-pips range producing a Doji candlestick pattern on the daily chart. A high probability remains for a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern indicating a potential trend reversal. We will be able to recognize it according to further price action.
The US dollar index has remained in control of bulls since January 06, 2021, after printing lows at around 89.20. The index has remained in a religious uptrend thereafter, carving a series of higher highs and higher lows towards 108.30 recently. The entire rally seems complete or close to complete. Hence, a probability remains for a meaningful corrective drop to unfold going forward.
The US dollar index is looking to drag lower towards the 101.00 support, which is also the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally between 89.20 and 108.30. A break below 103.15 will be encouraging for bears and could be the first step towards a larger correction. Also, note that prices could drop towards the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement that matches the 95.00-96.00 zone.
The US dollar index has potentially terminated a larger-degree upswing towards 108.30. Furthermore, recent highs have been accompanied by a bearish divergence on the daily RSI. This could be viewed as a strong indicator of a potential trend reversal towards 101.00 at least. The bottom line for the above is that prices should stay below 108.30.
Potential drop towards 101.00 against 108.50
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