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A lot was expected from yesterday's meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank, to such an extent that the market simply ignored the content of Christine Lagarde's press conference at first. But the head of the European Central Bank did not say anything new. That is, not just monetary policy remains unchanged, but it is still unclear when exactly it is planned to at least think about the possibility of raising interest rates. It took some time to realize this fact, during which the single European currency continued to grow steadily. Only when it became finally clear that nothing had changed, the single European currency began to actively lose its positions.
Refinancing rate (Europe):
Meanwhile, the market ignored data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, as expected. After all, they were published simultaneously with the press conference of Christine Lagarde. But the data turned out to be much worse than forecasts. For example, the number of initial requests, instead of decreasing by 28 thousand, increased by 51 thousand. The number of repeated requests decreased by 29 thousand, with a forecast of 145 thousand. Simply put, the data is simply appalling, and hints that the labor market just froze in place, although unemployment is still quite high.
Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (United States):
Despite the fact that the state of things has remained unchanged, which means that the trend for strengthening the dollar remains, the single European currency has a chance to strengthen its positions today. This assumption is prompted by forecasts for business activity indices, which look noticeably better in Europe than in the United States. Apparently, only the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector will decrease, from 63.4 points to 62.5 points. In the service sector, an increase is expected from 58.3 points to 59.6 points. So, the composite index of business activity should grow from 59.5 points to 60.1 points.
Composite Business Activity Index (Europe):
In the United States, everything is just terrible. Like in Europe, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector should decrease, only from 63.7 points to 63.0 points. But it should also decrease in the service sector, from 62.1 points to 61.8 points. So, it is not surprising that the composite index should decrease from 64.6 points to 64.1 points. And such a difference in the preliminary estimates of business activity indices should certainly help the single European currency to strengthen its position somewhat.
Composite Business Activity Index (United States):
The EUR/USD currency pair during the last trading day showed a fairly high swing, despite the fact that the quote conditionally remained in the same place, within the boundaries of the previously set amplitude of 1.1750/1.1830 on the market.
The market dynamics has moved from the stage of deceleration to acceleration, where there is a fairly wide speculative interest among market participants.
In the current position of the price, you can see a convergence with the base of the downward move, where there was a reduction in the volume of short positions.
In this situation, we can assume that the amplitude move in the range of 1.1750/1.1830 will remain on the market, which gives traders a fairly large springboard for maneuvers. The main changes in the market will occur after the price is kept outside of a certain stagnation boundary.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it can be seen that technical instruments on the minute and hour periods have a sell signal, due to price movement within the local base.
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