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At yesterday's trading, the GBP/USD currency pair strengthened by 0.6%. Given the weakness of the US dollar across the entire range of currencies, such an outcome of the first trading day of the current five-day period should not be considered a surprise. I believe that this course of trading on Monday was influenced by expectations of the results of the two-day Fed meeting and a decrease in the number of cases of the COVID-19 delta strain in the United Kingdom. Regarding the results of the Fed meeting, they will be announced on Wednesday evening and the subsequent press conference of the head of the US Central Bank, Jerome Powell. The analytical departments of some of the largest commercial banks expect that following the results of the current July meeting, hints will be given about the imminent reduction of the quantitative easing program. However, the increased number of cases of infection in the United States with a new delta strain of coronavirus infection may cause more cautious rhetoric from the Federal Reserve leadership. It won't be long until Wednesday evening, so we'll wait and see. As for today's macroeconomic statistics, the market will focus on data from the United States on orders for durable goods, as well as an indicator of consumer confidence. There are no macroeconomic reports from the UK scheduled for today. All the details can be found in the economic calendar, and we turn to the consideration of the technical picture for the pound/dollar pair.
Daily
As a result of yesterday's growth, the resistance level of 1.3785 was confidently broken and the blue Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator. The GBP/USD pair exactly fulfilled yesterday's forecast and reached the level of 38.2 Fibo from the decline of 1.4247-1.3570. At the same time, Monday's trading closed above the significant level of 1.3800, which adds strength to bullish sentiment for this instrument. At the moment, the pound/dollar has rolled back to the resistance level of 1.3785 and the Kijun line that was broken the day before. If yesterday's breakdown turned out to be true, then on a rollback to the broken levels and lines, it is customary to buy or sell, depending on the situation. In our case, you can try cautious purchases with small goals. Let me remind you that tomorrow evening the main event of this week will take place – the Fed's decision on rates and Jerome Powell's press conference. If the rise continues, the next target is the mark of 1.3873, where the black 89-exponential moving average is located. If the bears on the pound find strength and take the pair under their control, the nearest target of the decline will be the red line of the Tenkan of the Ichimoku indicator, which runs at 1.3734, and from where yesterday's growth began.
H1
On the hourly chart, a situation similar to the one occurs for the euro/dollar. At the moment, the "American" demonstrates strengthening. Once again, I will note the pullback to the resistance level of 1.3785 broken the day before, which gives those who want the opportunity to buy sterling. At the same time, I do not exclude a short-term flight below the accumulation of the used moving averages. Thus, the area for potential purchases can be defined as 1.3785-1.3760. I recommend that you refrain from opening short positions for the time being. Why? Look at the last weekly candle, which was shown and analyzed in yesterday's review. Isn't this a reason to give priority to purchases?
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