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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday first performed an increase to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3892), a reversal in favor of the US currency, and a fall to the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3830) according to the senior Fibo grid. Already today, a close at the level of 1.3830 followed, and the fall continues in the direction of the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3792). Fixing the pair's exchange rate below the level of 1.3792 will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3747). The rebound of quotes from 1.3792 will work in favor of the beginning of the pair's growth. As we have already figured out, on Friday, the British showed both growth and fall. However, reports on the state of the British economy (GDP) and industrial production were released in the UK early in the morning. The reports turned out to be completely different. If GDP turned out to be much worse in July than traders' expectations, then the report on industrial production is much better.
Nevertheless, the British dollar showed growth. However, in the afternoon, when there were no important reports in America, it still began to fall. Thus, I cannot say unequivocally that the economic reports caused the movements that everyone eventually saw.
If you look at the daily chart, it becomes clear that the pound has been in a limited range in the last seven months, approximately between the levels of 1.3600 and 1.4250. This range cannot be called a side corridor if we look at the short-term plan (in the context of several weeks), but in the long term, it is a side corridor. Thus, traders cannot say now which way the pound/dollar pair should be traded, based on several months. Even economic statistics do not help. From my point of view, everything depends at this time on the uncertainty associated with the monetary policy of the Bank of England and the Fed. Traders do not understand who and when is ready to start reducing the volume of monetary incentives, which will mean a tightening of policy. Thus, neither the pound nor the dollar currently has an advantage over each other.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a new reversal in favor of the US currency near the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). A new process of falling has begun, which can continue to the level of 38.2% (1.3746). However, this requires closing under the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3791). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today. The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from 1.3791 can return bull traders to the market.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
On Monday in the UK, the calendar of economic events does not contain a single interesting entry. Thus, the information background will be completely absent today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on September 7 for the pound showed that the mood of major players has become more "bearish." During the reporting week, speculators closed 5,437 long contracts and opened 2,427 short contracts. The total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators is already almost twice less than the total number of short contracts. Therefore, in general, the mood of speculators is now "bearish." However, traders still have big problems with closing at 1.3600, and there are still excellent opportunities for the growth of the British dollar quotes. Thus, the further fall of the British is not guaranteed. We need graphical sell signals so that they coincide with the data of COT reports.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
On Friday, I recommended staying in the pair's purchases with a target of 1.3892. However, the pair did not reach this level by only 5 points. Now I recommend buying the pair when it rebounds from 1.3792 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3830. Sales of the pound were recommended with targets of 1.3792 and 1.3747 if a close is made under 1.3830 on the hourly chart. At this time, they can be kept open until a buy signal is formed.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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