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Here are the details of the economic calendar for Sept 15:
The UK released its inflation data during the opening of the European session yesterday, where consumer prices increased from 2.0% to 3.2%. Inflation is growing above expectations of 2.9%, which stimulates speculators to sharp price changes in the British currency.
In Europe, industrial production data was published, where the growth rate slowed from 10.1% to 7.7% in annual terms. It should be noted that a slowdown to 6.2% was expected, so the indicator came out better than the forecast, but this only stimulated the European currency locally.
A similar figure was published in the United States, where industrial growth slowed from 6.64% to 5.95%, with a forecast decline to 5.0%. The divergence of expectations this time played in favor of the US dollar.
Analysis of trading charts from September 15:
EUR/USD
The 30-hour price movement along the support level of 1.1800 led to the emergence of a process of accumulation of trading forces in the market. This focused the attention of speculators who were ready to break into the market at any moment.
The downward cycle from the resistance area of 1.1880/1.1905 is still relevant among traders. At the same time, it should be noted that there has been a change of trading interests since the beginning of June, where the medium-term upward trend is no longer considered the main direction in the market.
The trading plan on September 14 and 15 considered the possibility of a breakdown of the level of 1.1800 along a downward trajectory. The forecast came true on September 16.
Despite the high activity on the GBP/USD pair, it is still squeezed between the two price levels of 1.3800 and 1.3880. Perhaps, the existing sideways movement is considered a leading signal of a change in trading interests, where the correction from the local low of 1.3600 has completed its formation.
September 16 economic calendar:
America's retail sales data will be published today at 12:30 Universal time, where their volume is expected to decline by 0.8% in August. These are not the best expectations, where if they are confirmed, the US dollar may be under pressure.
Together with the data on retail sales, indicators for unemployment benefits in the United States will also be released, where an increase in their volume is expected.
Details of statistics:
The volume of initial applications for benefits may rose from 310 thousand to 328 thousand.
The volume of repeated applications for benefits may rose from 2, 783 thousand to 2, 785 thousand.
* Applications for unemployment benefits reflect the number of currently unemployed citizens and those receiving unemployment benefits. This indicator is considered to be the state of the labor market, where the growth of the indicator negatively affects the level of consumption and economic growth. The reduction of applications for benefits has a positive effect on the labor market.
In our case, an increase in their volume is expected. If expectations coincide, this will put pressure on US dollar positions.
Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 16:
Market participants broke through the level of 1.1800 during the start of the European session, where speculators went on the offensive. The downward cycle from the resistance area of 1.1880/1.1905 aimed at a complete recovery of short positions relative to the correction from August 23 to September 3. A subsequent increase in the volume of short positions may occur if the price is kept below the level of 1.1770, which may open the way towards the range of 1.1700-1.1670.
An alternative scenario will become relevant if the price returns above the level of 1.1800, which will resume the sideways amplitude.
Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 16:
The pound's quote is moving around the level of 1.3800, showing a downward interest. In this case, the trading strategy considers the method of the breakdown of a certain control level (1.3800 or 1.3880), which will indicate the subsequent movement of the price.
If we consider the downward trend from the beginning of June, then sellers have the highest chances to take a leading position in the market.
A sell signal for the pound may be holding the price below the level of 1.3790 for a four-hour period.
Otherwise, a subsequent amplitude movement between the levels 1.3800 and 1.3880 is possible.
• Short positions or Short means sell positions.
* The resistance level is the so-called price level, from which the quote can slow down or stop the upward movement. The principle of constructing this level is to reduce the price stop points on the history of the chart, where the price reversal in the market has already occurred earlier.
What is reflected in the trading charts?
A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices.
Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.
Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.
The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.
Golden Rule: It is necessary to figure out what you are dealing with before starting to trade with real money. Learning to trade is so important for a novice trader because the market is constantly dynamic and it is important to understand what is happening.
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