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05.11.202110:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold's reaction to J. Powell

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Exchange Rates 05.11.2021 analysis

According to the MKS PAMP GROUP, the gold market is temporarily stuck in a narrow range from $1,750 to $1,800 per ounce, which is around the upper limit.

Exchange Rates 05.11.2021 analysis

Nicky Shiels, MKS PAMP GROUP's head of the strategic metals business, said that there is no strong enough factor to push gold below $ 1,750 an ounce or above $ 1,800 an ounce.

The gold trading model still strongly depends on how the US dollar and US Treasury yields affect economic growth, inflation, and the Fed's actions.

Gold's reaction to the announcement of the Fed on Wednesday was another example of its inaction at the moment.

The Fed announced that it will begin to wind down monthly asset purchases at a rate of $15 billion per month in November, citing significant further progress. Powell also expressed concern about inflation, saying it was higher than expected and likely to continue next year.

There was also a new version of the explanation of why inflation reached such high rates. The answer to this was the imbalance of supply and demand. Accordingly, Nicky Shiels wrote that the soft monetary policy is not the dominant driving force.

A slightly calmer position stems from Powell's assurances that the Fed is still keeping pace with the inflation schedule and it will be too early to raise rates today.

The immediate reaction to this news was the weakening of the US dollar, the rise in gold prices, and the growth of stocks.

Meanwhile, all attention will be focused soon on employment and inflation data. The first on the radar will be the report on the number of jobs outside agriculture for October, which will be published today on Friday.

The adoption of the market consensus assumes that the economy will add 450,000 new positions, and the unemployment rate will fall to 4.7%.

Irina Yanina
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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