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US market: Ready for new growth.
The main US indices rose steadily yesterday at the opening of the week: Dow +1.9%, NASDAQ +0.9%, S&P500 +1.2%.
Asian markets rose in the morning, supporting growth in the US: Japanese indices - high +2.4% growth.
Energy: Oil has been growing since the opening of the week +3 dollars, Brent today +1% (74 dollars/barrel).
COVID in the world: The fourth wave is at its highs, in the USA there is growing again with the beginning of the working week +89 cases; in total there are +463 cases in the world, the second and third place in new infections are Britain and Germany +51 and +39 new cases, respectively.
Strong data on the Chinese economy - export and import growth for 11 months + 31%.
From China's reports, it is clear why there were problems with gas in Europe and where American gas went - China increased gas purchases by 21.8% in 2021, reducing oil imports by 7.3%.
S&P500 4592 range 4560 - 4630.
The US market rose yesterday, as the first data on a new strain of COVID (omicron) show its low danger in terms of severe forms of the disease. Therefore, the risks to consumer demand and passenger traffic are reduced. The Dow index added 600 points yesterday, the S&P500 index almost played back the strong declines of last week. It should be noted, however, that the leader of the current economic and stock market growth cycle - the technological NASDAQ - turned out to be lagging behind yesterday. This situation - the growth of outsiders and the lag of leaders - is typical for the last phase of market growth.
The Wall Street Journal writes today that the Fed is preparing a new turn of its policy. Against the backdrop of high inflation and strong employment growth, the Fed may announce as early as next week that the curtailment of the $120 billion economic support program will per month (now less, taking into account the monthly reduction of 15 billion since November). This program can be curtailed by March, and not by June, as the Fed planned earlier. This may strengthen the dollar but negatively affect the stock market. A new inflation report will be released next Friday. Forecasts show high inflation and the employment report last week showed a decrease in unemployment from 4.6% to 4.2%
In New York, from December 27, the requirement of mandatory vaccination for employees in private companies will begin to take effect.
Elon Musk criticized Biden's law on supporting the electric car market as too regulated. Musk believes that the United States is losing leadership in the most important industry, yielding to China.
USDX 96.20, range 95.90-96.50. The dollar index has not yet reacted to rumors of a new tightening of the Fed's policy and remains in a narrow range. The dollar may wait for a new US inflation report on Friday.
USDCAD 1.2730, range 1.2660-1.2800. A new increase in oil prices has stopped the pair's growth. We have moved into a range state and we are waiting for new dynamics in oil and the dollar. In the case of oil growth, the pair's decline will continue.
Conclusion: The market situation is calm, we are waiting for a new wave of growth in the US market. The growth potential is small, up to the previous highs.
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