20.05.201310:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURUSD: Daily analysis for May 20, 2013

Daily chart: The EURUSD pair is approaching a very strong support level 1.2768. There we expect this pair will make a consolidation before continuing its bearish road. There is the possibility that the EURUSD pair will do a bullish rebound on this support at the level of 1.2768 for touch the resistance level at 1.2883. If EURUSD breaks the support level at 1.2768, it is very possible that this pair falls to support at the 1.2692 level. It is a very important level because if the EURUSD breaks this level, it is very possible that may fall to the 1.2427 level in the medium term. In this chart, the EURUSD pair stays below the 200-day moving average and the MACD indicator remains in negative territory, supporting our bearish outlook for the moment in this pair.

H4 chart: In Friday's session, EURUSD broke the support level at 1.2874 and is forming a higher low pattern below this level, to continue falling until the nearest support level at 1.2750. We must be careful with what is showing the MACD indicator, because it is in neutral territory, showing us the indecision among the investors in the short term trend in the EURUSD. Anyway, it is very likely that the EURUSD pair continues its fall, at least, to support the level of 1.2750. The EURUSD stays below the 200-day moving average.

H1 chart: In this chart, we can clearly see the development of a higher low pattern over the support level at 1.2811 and near the resistance formed by the Point of Control (POC) at the level of 1.2850. Technically, there is a possiblity that the EURUSD pair could do a bullish rebound in the support level at 1.2811, due to strong weakness has been showing the EURUSD in recent sessions, which is supported by the 200-day moving average that is above this pair. Here, we have a clear signal for intraday trading: If EURUSD breaks the support at the 1.2811 level, it is very possible that this pair falls to the support level at 1.2758. We must be careful with the MACD indicator, which is in positive territory.

Fundamental Outlook: For today's session, we expect low volatility in all EUR pairs since mostly of European banks will be closed due to Whit Monday.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place SELL orders (short) only if the EURUSD pair breaks with a bearish candlestick, the support level is at 1.2811, take profit is at 1.2758, and stop loss is at 1.2855.