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Recent statements by the more hawkish faction of the Federal Reserve have raised genuine fears that the current monetary policy to reduce inflation is about to undergo an undesirable change. Several Federal Reserve officials have hinted at a resumption of stronger rate hikes at their upcoming FOMC meetings. After seven consecutive rate hikes in 2022, the Fed raised rates by only a quarter percentage point at the first FOMC meeting this year. Until recently, there was a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve would make another quarter percentage rate hike at its next meeting in March.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of raising the interest rate by half a percentage point has now risen to 18.1%. Exactly one week ago, the CME FedWatch tool showed a 4.2% chance of a half percentage point rate hike in March.
Market sentiment has changed dramatically, believing that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is about to undergo a hawkish revision.
Last week, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester voiced her unfulfilled wish for the U.S. central bank to be more aggressive at its latest interest rate committee meeting in January to bring inflation back to 2%.
She is not the only Federal Reserve official who shares this belief. Both regional Fed presidents James Bullard and Loretta Mester, speaking to reporters after speaking to a business group in Jackson, Tennessee, voiced their desire for a 50 basis point rate hike next month.
Supporters of tighter monetary policy at the Federal Reserve are citing recent inflation reports that show inflation is much more resilient than they thought and is not declining as fast as their forecasts.
This dramatic reversal by members of the Federal Reserve led to a decline in the price of precious metals.
Traders were unrealistically hoping for a Fed reversal. However, recent economic data has led to extremely hawkish rhetoric from members of the Federal Reserve and new expectations for an upcoming rate hike in 2023.
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