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The euro and the pound continue to strengthen significantly against the U.S. dollar amid easing pressure from the United States.
Over the weekend, news emerged that Trump postponed the increase of tariffs on EU goods until July 9. This announcement triggered the buying of the euro and the British pound during the Asian trading session. Investors interpreted this move as a signal of potential easing in trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union, which positively impacted the outlook for the European economy.
However, despite the market's positive reaction, it is important to approach the market with a clear head. The tariff delay may be temporary, and trade negotiations between the U.S. and the EU remain complex and unpredictable. Moreover, concerns persist about slowing global economic growth. As a result, the euro's recent strengthening triggered by tariff news could prove short-lived, and the currency's further performance will depend on the evolution of U.S.-EU trade relations and the broader macroeconomic environment.
Traders will focus on speeches by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde today. Their comments, particularly regarding monetary policy outlooks and inflation expectations, could significantly influence the euro's movement. Markets will closely watch for any hints regarding future ECB decisions on interest rates. Easing monetary policy is likely to support the euro, while maintaining the current stimulus may pressure it.
Comments from policymakers about the geopolitical landscape and economic growth prospects in the eurozone will also be important. Positive assessments could boost investor confidence in the euro, whereas concerns about a recession might lead to its weakening.
The Mean Reversion strategy is recommended if the data matches economists' expectations. If the data deviates significantly from expectations, the Momentum strategy will be more appropriate.
Buying on a breakout of 1.1415 could lead to a rise toward 1.1453 and 1.1490;
Selling on a breakout of 1.1390 could lead to a fall toward 1.1370 and 1.1334.
Buying on a breakout of 1.3605 could lead to a rise toward 1.3635 and 1.3660;
Selling on a breakout of 1.3570 could lead to a fall toward 1.3542 and 1.3510.
Buying on a breakout of 142.80 could lead to a rise toward 143.25 and 143.70;
Selling on a breakout of 142.30 could lead to a decline toward 141.80 and 141.35.
I'll look for short entries after a failed breakout above 1.1430, upon return below this level;
I'll look for long entries after a failed breakout below 1.1385, upon return to this level.
I'll look for short entries after a failed breakout above 1.3603, upon return below this level;
I'll look for long entries after a failed breakout below 1.3560, upon return to this level.
I'll look for short entries after a failed breakout above 0.6547, upon return below this level;
I'll look for long entries after a failed breakout below 0.6498, upon return to this level.
I'll look for short entries after a failed breakout above 1.3728, upon return below this level;
I'll look for long entries after a failed breakout below 1.3674, upon return to this level.
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