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This morning, the euro may continue its upward movement, but solid data must be released for that to happen. Expected releases include the German IFO Business Climate Index, the Current Assessment Indicator, and the Expectations Indicator. Also of importance is the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Positive IFO data — especially improvements in business sentiment — could act as a catalyst for euro strengthening. Investors would interpret this as confirmation of the German economy's resilience, which would boost confidence in the ECB's ability to balance inflation control with economic growth support.
Conversely, Lagarde's weak IFO readings or cautious rhetoric emphasizing economic risks could pressure the euro. Concerns over slowing economic growth or a more dovish monetary stance could prompt capital outflows from the European currency.
Therefore, today's macroeconomic reports and the ECB President's remarks will shape the euro's short-term dynamics.
Today's UK releases include data on the CBI Industrial Order Balance, as well as a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. However, the primary growth driver for the British pound will likely remain developments in the Middle East and the de-escalation of the military conflict between Iran and Israel.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, the best approach is to use a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations, then the Momentum strategy is more appropriate.
Buying on a breakout above 1.1620 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1660 and 1.1699
Selling on a breakout below 1.1600 may lead to a euro decline toward 1.1570 and 1.1540
Buying on a breakout above 1.3595 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3630 and 1.3670
Selling on a breakout below 1.3565 may lead to a pound decline toward 1.3530 and 1.3490
Buying on a breakout above 145.30 may lead to dollar growth toward 145.60 and 145.90
Selling on a breakout below 144.90 may trigger dollar sell-offs toward 144.65 and 144.30
I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1637 and a return below this level
I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1566 and a return above this level
I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3596 and a return below this level
I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3523 and a return above this level
I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6523 and a return below this level
I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6474 and a return above this level
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I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3745 and a return below this level
I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3704 and a return above this level
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