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The euro managed to hold its ground against the dollar yesterday, just like the British pound, which increases the chances of a continued short-term bullish market.
Despite a brief decline, the euro showed resilience, indicating ongoing confidence in the European economy. However, structural issues—such as inflation and slowing growth—continue to put pressure on the European currency. The US dollar, despite its reserve currency status, is also influenced by domestic economic factors, particularly amid expectations of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. A decline in factory orders signals a potential slowdown in US economic growth, which negatively affects the dollar.
Today, the EUR/USD pair may be supported in the first half of the day by strong figures for the services PMI and the composite PMI of eurozone countries.
Attention will also turn to the eurozone producer price index (PPI) data for June. Traders closely monitor these key indicators, as they provide insight into the current state of the European economy. Any significant deviation of actual data from forecasts could trigger notable volatility in the forex market, especially for EUR/USD. As a leading indicator, the services PMI offers insights into the business activity trend in this crucial sector. The composite PMI, which combines data from manufacturing and services, helps build a broader picture of the region's economic health. The market's reaction to these data will depend not only on the numbers themselves but also on their interpretation in light of the current geopolitical situation and global recession risks.
For the UK, similar data are expected today for the services PMI and the composite PMI. The services PMI is a key indicator of the sector's health, which constitutes a significant share of the UK's GDP. Strong PMI figures could support the pound and boost investor confidence in the resilience of the British economy. On the other hand, weak data may raise concerns about a slowdown and potential recession.
If the data match economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data are significantly above or below expectations, the Momentum strategy would be more suitable.
Buying on a breakout above 1.1570 may lead to a rise toward 1.1630 and 1.1665
Selling on a breakout below 1.1540 may lead to a decline toward 1.1510 and 1.1479
Buying on a breakout above 1.3304 may lead to a rise toward 1.3342 and 1.3383
Selling on a breakout below 1.3255 may lead to a decline toward 1.3217 and 1.3179
Buying on a breakout above 147.30 may lead to a rise toward 147.60 and 147.90
Selling on a breakout below 147.00 may lead to a drop toward 146.60 and 146.30
Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1576, once the price returns below this level
Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.1536, once the price returns above this level
Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3300, once the price returns below this level
Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3263, once the price returns above this level
Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6476, once the price returns below this level
Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.6452, once the price returns above this level
Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3802, once the price returns below this level
Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3765, once the price returns above this level
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