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The new week may begin with turbulence in the foreign exchange market. On Saturday night in Alaska, negotiations took place between Russian and U.S. leaders Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, with the main topic being the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. I cannot call these talks highly productive, but certain progress was achieved. In particular, as early as Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will arrive in Washington, along with some European Union leaders. It is likely that during this meeting, Donald Trump will propose an agreement that Kyiv will be expected to sign to end the military conflict with Russia. At this point, it is not known precisely what provisions this agreement contains or whether Kyiv will agree to them. However, it is nonetheless a chance and an opportunity to end an almost four-year conflict.
Why are these events important for the currency market? It may seem that they will not affect major exchange rates. However, let me remind you that the dollar remains a "safe haven," demand for which rises whenever military or geopolitical tensions escalate anywhere in the world. Therefore, if the war ends, the dollar clearly cannot count on support, as market participants will seek riskier assets and emerging market currencies. Based on this, regardless of the economic calendar in the EU and the U.S. next week, demand for the euro may begin to increase right from the start of the week.
Among economic data, I highlight the consumer price index in the eurozone for July and the August business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors for eurozone countries. I believe that the business activity indices will be even more important than inflation, as the consumer price index will be published in its final, that is, second estimate. No more significant economic events are scheduled for the week.
From all of the above, geopolitics will again come to the forefront. This time, however, it will not only concern Trump's new tariffs or sanctions, but also the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which may finally be brought to an end.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues forming an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news background connected with Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets for this trend segment may extend as far as the 25th figure. Therefore, I continue to consider buying with targets around 1.1875, which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci, and above. I assume that the construction of wave 4 has been completed. Accordingly, now is a good time to buy.
The wave structure of GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, the markets may still face a large number of shocks and reversals, which could significantly affect the wave structure, but at present, the working scenario remains intact. The targets of the upward trend segment are now located near 1.4017. At the moment, I assume that the formation of downward wave 4 has been completed. Therefore, I recommend buying with a target of 1.4017.
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