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On Friday, January 9, the U.S. Supreme Court was scheduled to issue its decision on the trade tariffs imposed by Donald Trump in 2025. However, for unclear reasons, the decision was not issued, and the announcement date was postponed to Wednesday, January 14. In fact, on January 14, the American court may not publish any conclusive decision either. I remind you that the hearings were originally supposed to take place back in early November, but each time, something or someone prevents the Supreme Court from making what seems to be an obvious decision for everyone.
I also remind you that two U.S. courts (the Trade Court and the Appellate Court) have already ruled that the President of the United States had no right to impose global tariffs. The 1977 emergency law says nothing about the application of tariffs and does not even contain such a word in its text. Therefore, the American courts concluded that Donald Trump did not have such authority (especially without Congress's approval). However, in the first case, the president's administration appealed to the Court of Appeals. In the second case, it turned to the Supreme Court for a final verdict. And, as I have already said, the Supreme Court, consisting of nine justices, six of whom were appointed by Republican presidents (in particular, by Trump himself), cannot make a decision. Previously, there was also information that the Supreme Court might consider the tariff case almost until the summer, when its session ends.
Earlier, I already wrote that Trump's calculation is 100% correct. What difference does it make how long the case will be considered in court? On the contrary, the longer, the better. The tariffs have been in effect for almost a year, and the U.S. leader has repeatedly used them as leverage against other countries. If, by some miracle, the Supreme Court cancels the tariffs, Trump will immediately reinstate them under other laws. There are many laws in the United States; you can choose any one. Even those that have nothing to do with trade and relations with other countries.
In 2025, it turned out that many U.S. laws could be interpreted in any way, and while the slow-moving American courts were deciding whether the president's decision was legal, the tariffs continued to operate. Moreover, the imperfect American legal and judicial system, as it turned out, cannot oppose an incorrect interpretation of legislative acts. The tariffs are in effect and will remain so until they are repealed, and time works for Trump, not against him.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains in an upward trend. Donald Trump's policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. currency. The targets of the current trend segment may extend to the 25th figure. The current upward wave set may be complete, so the instrument faces a near-term decline. The trend segment that began on November 5 may still take on a five-wave appearance, but, right now, it is a corrective wave.
The wave picture of GBP/USD has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of 4 appears to be complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its development with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.
In the short term, I expected the formation of wave 3 or c with targets located near the marks 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to 76.4% and 61.8% on the Fibonacci scale. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or C has presumably completed its formation, so in the near term, a downward wave or a set of waves may be observed.
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