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The GBP/USD currency pair also rose on Monday, but over the past three weeks, it has traded sideways more than up or down. At the moment, the British currency has recovered to the Ichimoku indicator lines, so a rebound from them could trigger a new decline, while a break through them would mean a continuation of the rise. At the start of the new week, the market was actively reacting to a new round of conflict between Powell and Trump, which could end very badly for the Fed chairman. In any case, Jerome Powell will leave his post in May of this year, and Donald Trump will not stop his attempts to establish control over the US central bank. Thus, this story is far from over.
However, whenever Powell leaves, Trump will still face a much more difficult task. Recall that Powell does not decide alone what the key rate should be. The FOMC decides by a simple vote. Therefore, the US president needs six "loyal vassals" on the committee to influence monetary policy. We believe the US president will continue working on this into 2026. As for the pair's movements in the second half of January, an important US inflation report will be released today, and after that, everything will depend more on technical factors.
On the 5-minute TF yesterday, there was only one decent buy signal. During the European trading session, the price broke through the Senkou Span B line, allowing the opening of longs targeting the critical line. That line was reached within a few hours. A close above the Kijun-sen will allow opening new longs.
COT reports on the British pound show that, in recent years, the mood of commercial traders has fluctuated. The red and blue lines, which display net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, constantly cross and, in most cases, are near the zero mark. At the moment, the lines are moving apart, but non-commercial traders are currently dominating the... sales. Speculators are selling the pound more and more often, but, as we have already said, it does not matter how low the demand for the British currency is. Demand for the US dollar is often even lower.
The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as shown clearly in the weekly TF (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and the Fed will, in any case, cut rates within the next 12 months. Demand for the dollar will fall one way or another. According to the latest COT report (as of January 6) on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,000 BUY contracts and 4,300 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased over the week by 2,700 contracts.
In 2025, the pound rose quite strongly, but it should be understood that the reason is one — Trump's policies. Once this reason is neutralized, the dollar may begin to rise, but no one knows when.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend despite the breach of the trendline. We believe the pound's medium-term rise will continue regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop. At the moment, the euro, which has been falling for three weeks, may pull the pound down.
For January 13, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3201–1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3437, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3681, 1.3763. The Senkou Span B (1.3483) and Kijun-sen (1.3465) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the favorable direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Tuesday, there are again no important reports or events scheduled in the UK, while an important inflation report will be released in the US. This report will largely determine the fate, if not of the January meeting, then of the March one. Thus, for the second day in a row, the market may see decent volatility.
Today, traders may consider selling if the price bounces off the area of the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. Long positions will become relevant if the price consolidates above the Senkou Span B line with a target in the 1.3533–1.3548 area.
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