19.02.202609:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on February 19. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the European Currency

The price test at 1.1830 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair decreased by 17 pips.

Yesterday, the US dollar demonstrated renewed upward momentum. The catalyst for this growth was industrial production data that came in significantly above economists' forecasts. The January figures for industrial production pleasantly surprised, showing a growth of 0.7%. An increase in production volumes indicates strong demand and effective functioning of the industrial sector, which is critically important for overall economic prosperity.

Today, in the first half of the day, investors' attention will be drawn to several key economic indicators from the Eurozone. The European Central Bank's current account balance reflects the balance between foreign trade (exports and imports of goods and services) and capital flows. A positive balance indicates that the European economy receives more from abroad than it sends out, which is much more difficult to achieve under the new tariffs imposed by Trump.

Data on the Eurozone consumer confidence index will also be released, which has remained negative for quite some time. Optimistic consumer sentiment will lead to increased consumption and stimulate economic growth.

Attention should also be paid to the monthly report from the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, which traditionally provides a detailed analysis of the economic state of the Eurozone's largest country. It may provide assessments of industry trends, the labor market situation, inflation expectations, and economic growth forecasts.

As for my intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros at a price around 1.1806 (green line on the chart), with a target of reaching 1.1823. I plan to exit the market at 1.1823 and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro today can only be expected after strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1790 twice in a row, at which point the MACD indicator should be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise towards opposing levels of 1.1806 and 1.1823 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the level of 1.1790 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be the level of 1.1775, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the data is weak. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1806 twice in a row, at which point the MACD indicator should be in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease toward opposing levels of 1.1790 and 1.1775 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;

The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;

The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.