19.02.202619:10 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on February 19th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 155.05 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a proper entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined to around 154.71.

Today, all attention will be focused on jobless claims data as well as speeches by Federal Reserve representatives. Despite being released weekly, jobless claims are a fairly sensitive indicator of labor market conditions. An increase may signal a deterioration in the overall economic picture, which the Federal Reserve will certainly take into account. It is worth noting that recently this indicator has been in solid shape, so there is a chance for renewed dollar growth against the yen.

Speeches by FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Neel Kashkari will add further analytical weight. Their comments regarding the current economic situation, inflation expectations, and future monetary policy steps will be carefully analyzed by market participants. Such speeches often contain hints about potential Federal Reserve decisions, making them a valuable source of information for traders when making decisions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 154.94 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 155.44 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.44, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point move from that level). Growth in the pair today can be expected after a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 154.62 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 154.94 and 155.44 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 154.62 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 154.28, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the case of weak reports.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 154.94 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 154.62 and 154.28 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.