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The test of the price at 154.71 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling dollars. As a result, the pair fell by 40 pips.
Yesterday's uncertainty from Washington created widespread confusion about Trump's tariff strategy, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar. However, traders managed to reverse the market in their favor during today's Asian trading session. Only if there is a real increase in global tariffs to 15% can we expect serious renewed pressure on the dollar and strengthening of the Japanese yen. This scenario is already being worked on by the Trump administration and appears quite realistic. In this context, raising tariffs to 15% would create a new shock for the global economy, forcing investors to reassess their investments and capital flows. Such a sharp shift towards a stricter trade policy would likely reduce appetite for the dollar, leading to increased demand for the Japanese yen.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches an entry point around 155.26 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 155.58 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 155.58, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts back in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.00 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth to opposing levels of 155.26 and 155.58.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 155.00 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 154.60, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.26 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to opposing levels of 155.00 and 154.60.
Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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