05.03.202608:28 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold settles comfortably above $5,000

Gold rose yesterday after the US dollar fell and the Middle East war entered its sixth day with no sign of resolution. The precious metal gained 0.9% and topped $5,180 an ounce, after a 1% rise in the previous session.

Clearly, traders and investors seeking to protect their capital continued actively moving into safer assets. Gold in particular — long seen as a classic safe haven in times of geopolitical instability — once again proved its relevance. Buying activity in precious metals rose sharply as military activity in the Middle East intensified, with US and Israeli forces conducting large-scale operations against Iran.

Tehran did not remain passive. In response to the strikes, Iran launched a series of rocket attacks on several countries in the region. Those strikes targeted critical energy infrastructure and had serious consequences. Most notably, the Strait of Hormuz — a strategically important shipping lane through which a large share of seaborne oil flows — was effectively blocked.

The fallout has been multifaceted. Financial markets have become more volatile, and energy prices are trending higher. As noted, gold has been a beneficiary of the situation, showing steady price gains. Investors, fearing further escalation and its consequences for the global economy, are diversifying portfolios and increasing allocations to assets perceived as least exposed to risk.

President Donald Trump voiced confidence in the US military campaign after the US sank an Iranian warship in international waters. Iran, meanwhile, denied reports that its intelligence ministry had contacted Washington proposing talks to end the conflict.

This year, gold has already risen by roughly one-fifth, driven by heightened geopolitical and trade tensions and concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence. At the end of January, the metal hit a record high above $5,595 an ounce.

The recent dollar weakness has also supported gold, making it more accessible to many buyers. The US dollar index has fallen about 0.4% over the past two days, although for the week it has still risen nearly 1%.

Technical outlook

For gold buyers, the next key resistance to reclaim is $5,223. Clearing that level would open a door toward $5,317, above which further gains would be challenging. The more distant upside target is around $5,416. On the downside, bears will try to seize control at $5,137. If that level breaks, it would deal a heavy blow to bullish positions and could send gold down to $5,051, with a potential extension toward $4,975.