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US dollar strengthens amid global flight to safety and worsening geopolitical situation
At the start of March 2026, the dollar led a broad flight to safety: escalation of the Middle East conflict (strikes, the death of Iran's leader, retaliatory attacks on US bases, and an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz) and a revision of expectations for Fed policy boosted demand for the haven currency. The US dollar index jumped nearly 1.5% over two days to 99.65 and consolidated early in the week in the 98.7–99.3 area.
The oil market reacted with gains: WTI rose above $76.5/bbl, Brent approached $83. Analysts warn that in a worst-case scenario, prices could surge to $120–150/bbl, which would accelerate inflation amid slowing growth. This combination of a geopolitical shock and rising oil strengthens the stagflation risk and supports demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar. More details at the link.
US equity markets face severe tests
The start of March 2026 has produced what looks like a perfect storm for US markets: escalation in the Middle East, an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and a repricing of Fed policy have driven volatility higher. As a result, the S&P 500 is testing key support in the 6,800–6,710 area (EMA144 on the daily chart).
After the joint strikes by the US and Israel that reportedly killed Iran's supreme leader, Tehran responded with strikes on US bases, and the IRGC announced the closure of the Strait. Markets reacted sharply: the S&P 500 futures fell more than 1.4% to ~6,760, the Dow dropped 1.43%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.74%. The Fear & Greed indicator stands at 31 (the "fear" zone). The S&P briefly reached an intraday low of 6,710. More details at the link.
Middle East conflict materially shifts investment flows, supporting S&P 500
The conflict in the Middle East has reshaped market dynamics: after the US and Israel struck Iran, capital rotated from Asia into US assets. As a result, the S&P 500 gained, while export-oriented Asian markets, including the KOSPI and TWSE, underperformed amid fears of a global growth slowdown.
Support for the US market also came from domestic factors: retail investors were active buyers of the dips — JP Morgan reports $2.2 billion flowed into US stocks and ETFs in early spring — and positive macro releases increased interest in small-cap names. Tax cuts and the return of tariffs by the White House add a fiscal impulse, making medium-term GDP prospects and the US market more attractive to investors. More details at the link.
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