Relevance up to 02:00 2026-03-20 UTC--4
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Trade Analysis and Advice for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 159.10 price occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.
Today, the yen has maintained its position against the US dollar after the Bank of Japan left the base interest rate unchanged amid the escalation of the war in Iran. The central bank voted for this decision with 8 votes in favor and 1 against, with Hajime Takata expressing disagreement, calling for an interest rate hike for the second consecutive meeting.
Despite concerns about inflation and rising geopolitical tensions, Japan continues to adopt a wait-and-see approach. This decision by the BoJ reflects its confidence in the resilience of the Japanese economy despite external shocks. The 8-to-1 voting underscores the divergence of opinions within the central bank. Takata, the sole advocate for a more aggressive policy, aims to curb inflationary pressure and strengthen the yen. His position reflects concerns about the potential depreciation of the national currency and rising prices. However, this is clearly insufficient for the market to believe in real plans for near-term rate hikes.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Scenarios
- Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 159.77 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth towards 160.10 (the thicker green line on the chart). At 160.10, I plan to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35-pip move back from the level). The best time to return to buying the pair is during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 159.59 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 159.77 and 160.10 can be expected.
Sell Scenarios
- Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the 159.59 level (the red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 159.28, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips back from the level). Selling should be done as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 159.77 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to the opposite levels of 159.59 and 159.28 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
- The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
- The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
- The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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